Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Jan. 29

Reed Wallach | Jan 29, 2025

Jan 18, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) shoots the ball against Kentucky Wildcats guard Lamont Butler (1) during the first half at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Mississippi State has proven to be much improved this season and is primed for a NCAA Tournament appearance, but it can use a signature win in SEC play against one of the best teams in the nation to officially enter a conversation about its standing in the best conference in college basketball this season. 

The Bulldogs have that chance at home on Wednesday against Alabama, who enters on the heels of a three game winning streak that features two games where the team scored 100 points. Can the Mississippi State defense keep a lid on the Crimson Tide in a projected coin flip? 

Here’s our betting preview for this SEC showdown on Wednesday. 

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Alabama: -1.5 (-102)
• Mississippi State: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Alabama: -111
• Mississippi State: -105

Total: 164.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alabama vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, January 29
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Alabama Record: 17-3
• Mississippi State Record: 16-4

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch

Alabama

Mark Sears: Sears was seemingly benched against LSU on Saturday, but it doesn’t appear that this will be a long term ordeal for the Crimson Tide guard after Nate Oats talked it down in his press conference in between games. Sears is second in the SEC in scoring at 18 points per game and remains an All American candidate as he looks to bounce back against Mississippi State. 

Mississippi State

Josh Hubbard: Hubbard continues to grow as a player, upping his assist rate as his shot volume decreases, but his efficiency is taking a nose dive. He is shooting 29% from the field in SEC play as the team needs the guard to find his rhythm as the competition continues to heat up this season. 

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Alabama has scored 100 or more points in two of the last three games, and while I won’t bank on that to bet the over, I do believe each unit can get their fair share of points in this one and send it over the total. 

The Crimson Tide offense plays fast and loves to shoot from the perimeter, which plays right into Mississippi State’s hands, who allow opponents to hoist from the perimeter. Mississippi State is 273rd in the country in opponent three-point rate and have been vulnerable against it, allowing teams to shoot 34% from distance. 

Meanwhile, Alabama’s pace, the fastest in the country according to KenPom, should lead to plenty of possessions in this one for the Crimson Tide to put points on the board. 

Mississippi State isn’t a team that pushes the pace, but should be able to put pressure on the rim against the Crimson Tide, who do a good job of cutting off the perimeter for its opponents. Mississippi State is an elite finishing team, ranking 15th in the country in near proximity field goal percentage, per Haslametrics. 

The Bulldogs defense is elite, but it typically struggles when punching up in weight class. The team has allowed an average of 77 points to teams inside the top 35 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. 

I’m willing to bet on the blend of pace and matchup edges for this game to go over the total. 

PICK: OVER 164.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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