Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction and Odds for Australian Open Final

Reed Wallach | Jan 25, 2025

Jan 22, 2025; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Jannik Sinner of Italy hits a forehand during his match against Alex de Minaur of Australia in the quarterfinals of the men's singles at the 2025 Australian Open at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Defending Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner is a win away from a second straight title in Melbourne, but must defeat a player that has given him trouble to date in the 2025 finals. 

Sinner will face Alexander Zverev, who defeated Novak Djokovic via retirement in the semifinals to make his third Grand Slam title match. Zverev is a big underdog as he seeks his first ever Grand Slam Championship as Sinner has emerged as the best player in the world over the past year or so. 

How should we handicap this matchup and bet this one? Here’s the odds and our wager. 

Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Zverev: +4.5 (-112)
• Sinner: -4.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Zverev: +235
• Sinner: -295

Total: 38.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, January 26th
• Game Time: 3:30 AM EST
• Venue: Rod Laver Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction and Pick

Zverev holds a 4-2 head-to-head matchup edge on Sinner with the German winning two of the three Grand Slam matches as well with both coming tat the U.S. Open (2021, 2023) and Sinner winning on clay back in 2020. 

Can Zverev, who has a blistering first serve, continue to give Sinner fits on hard court? 

The German has had a litany of issues of closing out high leverage matches, including in the US Open Championship in 2020 and in the 2024 French Open Finals with a 2-1 set lead over Carlos Alcaraz. 

Sinner’s ability to dictate points with his groundstrokes and extended rallies will stress Zverev, who struggled to close out Novak Djokovic in the first set in the semifinals before the veteran retired after losing the tiebreaker. If Zverev’s level matches that of the semifinals, he will ultimately lose his third title match. 

However, with Zverev’s success against Sinner on this surface, I believe we see the German take at least one set and force a lengthy set against Sinner. The two men played a marathon five setter in the 2023 U.S. Open, and while I believe the No. 1 player in the world ultimately wins, but it takes a while. 

PICK: OVER 38.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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