Angel Reese vs. Caitlin Clark: Who Has Edge in WNBA Rookie of the Year Race?

The WNBA Rookie of the Year is a two-player race, but who should you bet to win the award?

Team WNBA forward Angel Reese (5) passes the ball to Team WNBA guard Caitlin Clark. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The WNBA Rookie of the Year race is officially down to two players, as Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark and Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese are the only two players listed in the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Reese is he underdog at +700 (implied probability of 12.5 percent) while Clark is heavily favored at -2000 (implied probability of 95.24 percent).

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Earlier this season, I wrote about why Reese could be considered as a value bet given her double-double streak and the fact that she led all rookies in win shares, and I still believe there is some truth to that sentiment.

As I pointed out in that piece, these awards are voted on, and the markets don't always perfectly dictate how voters feel. Just take the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year award last season as an example. Malik Monk was a sizable favorite for most of the season, but he ended up losing to Naz Reid, who came on strong in the final month and was an underdog for nearly the entire process.

This race is a little different than that, but there were points where Monk was an odds-on favorite within the final month of the season. So, there is always a chance that Reese could make up ground on Clark.

Right now, the WNBA is on hiatus through the Olympic break and won't return until Aug. 15, meaning both Reese and Clark will have some time to rest up for the stretch run.

Two very different players (one guard and one forward), Clark and Reese impact the game in very different ways, but both have been effective, as they're both currently in the playoff field (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) at this point in the season.

While the odds for Clark are way too chalky to consider making a bet, I'm going to break down the case for each rookie star to win the award in 2024.

Caitlin Clark Rookie of the Year Odds (-2000)

Clark and the Fever got off to a slow start -- partially due to a brutal schedule -- but they've rebounded nicely over the last two months to move into the No. 7 seed in W.

Clark has been magnificent over her last 12 games, shooting 44.5 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3 while averaging 18.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, 10.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Known for her long-range shooting, Clark is showing everyone how gifted she is as a passer, breaking the WNBA single-game assist record earlier this month (she had 19 dimes in that game).

Not only does Clark rank first in the league in assists per game, but she also is 13th in points per game and 19th in rebounds per game. Not bad from a point guard.

Now, there are some drawbacks to the rookie. She hasn't been as efficient as she'd like (40.5 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from 3), but she's still shooting a better percentage from the field than Reese and star players like Arike Ogunbowale and Jewell Loyd (both of whom are in the top five in the league in points per game).

Clark takes 63.6 percent of her shots from beyond the arc -- many that are of extreme difficulty -- but she's shot extremely well from in close (60.7 percent within three feet and 51.1 percent from 3-10 feet) so far in 2024.

The rookie's turnovers (5.6 per game) are another concern, but she also has a high usage rate (12th in the NBA) for a rookie.

I don't know if I'd have Clark favored by this much given how well Reese has also performed, but the fact that the Fever are in the playoff mix is a testament to how much of a game-changer she is. Before drafting Clark, Indiana had failed to make the playoffs in seven straight seasons, winning no more than 13 games in all of them.

The Fever already have 11 wins this season, and they're on their way to a playoff spot if they can play well after the Olympic break. That may be enough to push Clark over the edge for this award.

Angel Reese Rookie of the Year Odds (+700)

One key area where Reese has Clark beat is in the win shares department (2.7 to 1.2), and the LSU product has been a double-double machine in the 2024 campaign.

Not only does Reese average 13.5 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, but she set the record for more consecutive double-doubles this season.

Reese entered an interesting situation in Chicago with the team sort of rebuilding, but she's established herself as a clear part of the future in the frontcourt alongside fellow rookie Kamilla Cardoso.

Clark's role is much different from Reese's, as she's asked to run the offense for the Fever, but Reese has done a good job commanding the glass on both ends, averaging 4.7 offensive rebounds per game. That's helped her make up for some of her shooting (40.2 percent from the field) that has been a point of pushback on her Rookie of the Year case.

Primarily a post player, Reese is struggling to shoot the ball from 3-10 feet, posting a field goal percentage of 25.8 percent from that distance. However, when she's able to get position deeper in the post, she's much more efficient (52.6 percent) from inside three feet.

Like Clark, Reese has been instrumental in keeping the Sky in the playoff picture, and they currently have a three-game cushion on the Atlanta Dream for the eighth and final playoff spot.

Ultimately, I think Clark's playmaking is a major reason for her edge in the betting market, but I do think Reese could close the gap if she increases her efficiency to close out the regular season. That would increase her points per game average, and if she shoots better than Clark, it may turn the "efficiency battle" -- something she's losing right now -- in her favor.

Clark is likely to win this award based on the odds, but Reese has been extremely impressive as well in 2024.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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