Arkansas vs. St. John's Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 22, 2025

Mar 20, 2025; Providence, RI, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks guard D.J. Wagner (21) looks to shoot against Kansas Jayhawks second half at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

After a slow start, No. 2 seed St. John’s took care of business against No. 15 Nebraska Omaha, paving the way for a second-round matchup against No. 10 seed Arkansas, who stunned No. 7 seed Kansas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Razorbacks played inspired basketball down the stretch of the regular season to secure a bid in the 2025 NCAA Tournament and will look to make the second weekend in head coach John Calipari’s first season with the program. However, the team is a big betting underdog against Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad, which bolsters arguably the best defense in the country. 

Who has the edge in this one? 

Let’s break it down! 

Arkansas vs. St. John’s Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Arkansas: +6.5 (-102)
• St. John's: -6.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Arkansas: +230
• St. John’s: -275

Total: 143.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Arkansas vs. St. John’s How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 22nd
• Game Time: 2:40 PM EST
• Venue: Amica Mutual Pavilion
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Arkansas Record: 21-13
• St. John’s Record: 31-4

Arkansas vs. St. John’s Key Players to Watch

Arkansas

D.J. Wagner: The Kentucky transfer showed out in the first-round upset of Kansas, scoring 14 points with three rebounds, six assists, and two steals, playing all 40 minutes. Wanger will be tasked with handling a relentless St. John’s defense that will surely make life difficult for the Hogs primary ball handler. 

St. John’s

RJ Luis: The forward dominated Nebraska Omaha as expected, filling up the stat sheet with 22 points, eight rebounds, and two assists. He’ll face a far better defense in Arkansas, who will look to slow down the Big East Player of the Year. 

Arkansas vs. St. John’s Prediction and Pick

I like Arkansas at a big number to keep this game competitive and possibly spark a second upset and advance to the Round of 32. 

The Razorbacks, like St. John's, are built around its strong defense, but its the upside of the Hogs offense that makes me bullish they can keep this within the number. Arkansas is shooting at a near-34% clip from beyond the arc, 104th in the country, since the start of February, and has also been imposing its will getting downhill. The Razorbacks are also 10th in free throw rate. 

If the team can avoid letting St. John’s get into transition opportunities, the team will have far more success in the halfcourt slowing down the Red Storm’s shaky offense. The team fell behind early against Nebraska Omaha, but settled in and blew the No. 15 seed out, but the Red Storm continued to prove to be a concerning offense. Pitino’s group is shooting below 31% from deep on a bottom 25 rate in the country. 

If Arkansas can build an early lead, St. John’s will surely ramp up the ball pressure, but with the team’s ability to handle contact from the rigors of the SEC and also hand St. John’s some looming free throw regression – opponents are shooting 66% at the charity stripe, the third lowest in the country. 

I don’t trust St. John’s to cover a big number against a team that has plenty of pedigree in terms of talent and is possibly realizing its ceiling at the right time.

PICK: Arkansas +6.5 (-102, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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