Australia vs. Team USA Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Olympic Basketball Semifinals

Can Team USA cover the spread as a massive favorite in the semifinals vs. Australia?

Australia forward Alanna Smith (11) and guard Tess Madgen. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Team USA is just two wins away from another gold medal in women’s basketball after beating Nigeria by 14 points in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. 

A’ja Wilson and company coasted out to a 28-point lead at the end of the third quarter, but a 26-12 fourth quarter in favor of Nigeria helped it cover the 28-point spread in the game. I mentioned in Wednesday’s betting preview that taking the points was the way to go since point differential no longer matters in the knockout stage. 

Now, Team USA will look to advance to the gold medal game when it takes on Australia in the semifinals on Friday. Australia has some serious talent, led by Ezi Magbegor, Alanna Smith, and Steph Talbot, and it dominated Serbia – winning by 18 – in the quarterfinals. 

The United States will have its hands full in this game, but oddsmakers are still expecting Breanna Stewart, Wilson, Jackie Young and the rest of the star-studded squad to reach the final in women’s basketball.

Here’s a look at the latest odds for this semifinal matchup and how I’m betting on it. 

Australia vs. Team USA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Australia +17 (-108)
• Team USA -17 (-112)

Moneyline

• Australia: +1100
• Team USA: -2500

Total

• 163 (Over -112/Under -108)

Australia vs. Team USA How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Aug. 9
• Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
• Venue: Bercy Arena
• How to Watch (TV): USA Network, Peacock
• Australia record: 3-1
• Team USA record: 4-0

Australia vs. Team USA Key Players to Watch

Australia 

A’ja Wilson: The best player in the world right now, Wilson put up a double-double on Wednesday in Team USA’s win over Nigeria, putting up 20 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and two blocks. Wilson will have her hands full with two WNBA frontcourt players in Ezi Magbegor and Alanna Smith. 

Team USA

Alanna Smith: The Minnesota Lynx forward has been huge for Australia in the Olympics, scoring 22 points on 7-of-13 shooting from the field in an 18-point quarterfinal win against Serbia. She’s one of several WNBA players on this Australia roster that could make things tough on Team USA. 

Australia vs. Team USA Prediction and Pick

The United States’ is looking to win an eighth consecutive gold medal in 5x5 women’s basketball, but it won’t come easy against Australia. 

Smith and Magbegor are one of the better frontcourts that Team USA will face this summer, and Australia was up by 24 points entering the fourth quarter of its quarterfinal matchup, playing a very similar game to Team USA. 

Now, Australia did lose to Nigeria in the group stage, turning the ball 26 times in that matchup and getting a dismal 1-for-10 shooting night from Talbot. 

That may be why oddsmakers have the Americans favored by 17 points, but Australia has rebounded nicely since, going 3-0 to advance out of the group and win the quarterfinal matchup with Serbia. 

The Americans have shown all tournament that they can dominate when needed – as we saw in the quarters – but they took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter on Wednesday. That result was not too different from the 2020 Olympics and the gold medal game against Japan, where Team USA allowed a run to close out the game.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Australia made this game more competitive, and I’m not sold on the Americans going all out for a blowout win. They didn’t do it on Wednesday, and they have wins by 26, 13, 19 and 14 so far this summer. 

With the WNBA talent that Australia has, I think 17 points is a few too many – even in a game Team USA should and will likely win. 

Pick: Australia +17 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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