Baylor vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 22, 2025

Mar 21, 2025; Raleigh, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Khaman Maluach (9), forward Cooper Flagg (2) and guard Isaiah Evans (3) celebrate on the bench during the second half against the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images / Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The National Championship betting favorite, Duke, started its run to the title with a blowout win against Mount Saint Mary’s. 

Now, the top seed in the East Region has a far more difficult task ahead, set to face Baylor, who held on to defeat Mississippi State. Can the No. 9 seed Bears keep up with the best team in college basketball? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Baylor vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Baylor: +11.5 (-104)
• Duke: -11.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Baylor: +640
• Duke: -950

Total: 143.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Duke vs. Baylor How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 23rd
• Game Time: 2:40 PM EST
• Venue: Lenovo Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Duke Record: 32-3
• Baylor Record: 20-14 

Duke vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch

Duke

Cooper Flagg: Flagg showed zero lingering issues with his ankle injury, playing in 22 minutes of the team’s 44 point demolition of Mount Saint Mary’s, scoring 14 points with six rebounds and four assists while adding two blocks.

Baylor

VJ Edgecombe: The freshman guard came on strong in the first round game, hitting key free throws down the stretch to ice the victory. He finished with 16 points and five rebounds as Baylor put together a comprehensive effort to advance. 

Duke vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

Both teams will be willing to play in the halfcourt, and I believe that is going to keep the team from competing with the Blue Devils, who have arguably the best half court defense in the country. 

With Flagg looking completely fine in the team’s first round win against Mount Saint Mary’s, the Blue Devils defense should continue to operate at a high level. 

Against Quad 1 competition, Baylor has struggled on offense, going 5-12 this season as the offense posted a sub-50% effective field goal percentage. Looking at games against some of the best defenses, Baylor failed to score more than 65 in two games against Houston, Iowa State or Tennessee, averaging 60.75 points per game. 

On the other end, Duke’s offense will continue to operate at a high level, but the team is built around its stifling defense, which is why I continue to trust that part of the team to keep producing unders. 

PICK: UNDER 144 (Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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