Baylor vs. LSU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Texas Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 23, 2024

Nov 23, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson (13) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Baylor and LSU meet in the 2024 Texas Bowl with some familiar faces squaring off. 

Former LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda went from the hot seat to coach of one of the hottest teams in the country to close the season in Baylor. He’ll face his former team on a neutral field to try and cap off a torrid second half of the season against an LSU team that may be focused on next year already, but will have starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier lining up for the second straight bowl game. 

Here’s our betting preview for the 2024 Texas Bowl.

Baylor vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Baylor: +1.5 (-108)
• LSU: -1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Baylor: +100
• LSU: -120

Total: 59.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Baylor vs. LSU How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, December 31st
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: NRG Stadium 
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Baylor Record: 8-4
• LSU Record: 8-4

Baylor vs. LSU Key Players to Watch

Baylor

Sawyer Robertson: The Bears offense took off over the second half of the season, and Robertson emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12. He passed for 2,626 yards with 26 passing touchdowns and only seven interceptions. The Baylor offense is 35th in EPA/Play while scoring nearly three points per drive and Robertson’s ability to keep the offense on schedule has been pivotal to its success. 

LSU

Garrett Nussmeier: Nussmeier’s play tailed off towards the end of the season, and he announced his intention to return to LSU next season. Overall, he led an elite passing offense as he passed 3,739 yards with 26 passing touchdowns, but there are plenty of opt-outs for this game that may hamper the Tigers effectiveness, which is incredibly leveraged on its passing game with a top 10 passing play percentage. 

Baylor vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

These two teams enter in different mindsets after Baylor won its final six games of the regular season and are going to look to maintain its momentum into the 2025 campaign. Overall, the team has limited opt-outs ahead of this game as of this writing. 

Meanwhile, LSU fell short of College Football Playoff goals set ahead of the season as the team’s defense continued to struggle and the run game was limited throughout the entire season. With that in mind, several key players have opted out of the game, including two starting offensive linemen with potentially more looming, including No. 1 wide receiver Kyren Lacy. 

This number is indicating that LSU will have plenty of players sit out which can bring the talented Tigers down to the Bears level, and given the form in which each team finished the season, it’s fair to see why. 

While the Tigers played a tougher schedule, the team rates out worse than Baylor over the balance of the season, 53rd in net EPA/Play against Baylor’s 44th mark in the same metric. With the likelihood that LSU is a shell of its full roster, this matchup sets up for another win for the budding Bears.

With about a two-and–half hour drive to Houston from Waco, Baylor should enjoy a solid turnout for this game and win the game outright. 

PICK: Baylor ML (+100)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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