Bears vs. Lions Final Score Prediction for Thanksgiving Day in NFL Week 13

Do the Lions finally snap their losing streak on Thanksgiving?

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will look to lead his team to a win, but can they at least cover in Week 13? / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions have won nine games in a row and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl heading into their Thanksgiving Day matchup with Caleb Williams the Chicago Bears, who have lost their last five games and are just 4-7 on the season.

Detroit is a double-digit favorite in this matchup, but it is just 37-45-2 on Thanksgiving all time, losing seven consecutive games on the holiday. This will be the 20th time that the Bears and Lions face off on Thanksgiving, and Chicago currently holds an 11-8 lead in those matchups. 

Still, this Lions team is much different than many from the past, and there’s a reason oddsmakers are expecting them to win in a blowout. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup. While it’s extremely hard to get a final score right, a prediction in the right ballpark should help bettors make a decision on a side – or total – before wagering on this game. 

Let’s dive into this Thanksgiving matchup.  

Bears vs. Lions Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Bears +10.5 (-112)
• Lions -10.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Bears: +425
• Lions: -575

Total

• 48.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

This may seem like a lot of points, but the Lions have been dominant against the spread, covering the spread in 23 of their last 31 games.

The Lions are now 23-8 ATS since the start of last season. This includes going 19-7 ATS as a favorite. They're an ATM right now.

— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) November 25, 2024

On the season, Detroit is an NFL-best 9-2 against the spread while the Bears are 5-4-2 against the spread, going 0-3-1 against the spread as a road underdog. 

Bears vs. Lions Final Score Prediction

Despite the Lions’ insane run against the spread, SI Betting NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan thinks that the underdog is the right bet in this matchup. 

He broke down why in our game preview earlier this week: 

There's no denying the Detroit Lions are an elite football team and I'm on record saying they're the best team in the NFL right now, but a 10.5-point spread in this game is a bit too steep for my taste.

The Bears' secondary remains one of the best in the NFL, ranking inside the top five in most metrics including opponent yards per pass attempt and opponent dropback EPA. They have struggled to stop the run at times, but if they can slow down the Lions' pass attack, they're going to be in a great spot to keep the score in check.

There's something to be said for how much better Williams has been since the firing of Waldron. He posted a 95.0 quarterback rating two weeks ago against the Packers and then completed 68.1% of passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns for a 103.1 rating against one of the best defenses in the league, the Vikings, in Week 12. Now, he and the Bears offense get to face a banged-up Lions defense that's already missing Adian Hutchinson, and Alex Anzalone, and may be missing two corners in Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis III.

Let’s not forget, the Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving in over half a decade. So, it may not be crazy to think that they’ll struggle a little on the holiday in 2024. 

I still think the Lions win, but 10.5 points is a lot in a rivalry matchup. 

Final Score Prediction: Lions 26, Bears 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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