Best Bets for The PFL World Championships

With $6 million up for grabs in Saudi Arabia, where can bettors find value on a stacked Black Friday card?

Brendan Loughnane is an underdog to Timur Khizriev at the PFL World Championships. / Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK

The PFL continues to make poor decisions regarding its format and promotion of the organization, but that is a discussion for another column.

This Friday's card has some intriguing fights. There are  6 championship bouts with the winner of each taking home the belt along with $1 million. The PFL’s viewership and exposure are dwarfed by the alpha in the room in the UFC and as a result, I am of the opinion that the oddsmakers are not as sharp in some of their offerings which provides bettors great value in a few of these fights. I am breaking down my 3 best bets from the main card.

PFL World Championships How to Watch

• Date: Friday, November 29, 2024, 1 pm ET
• Venue: King Saud University, Riyadh Saudi Arabia
• How to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

MMA Betting Record

• Last Week: 4-1 (+4.4 units)
• Overall (since 11/16/24): 6-4 (+3.75 units)

PFL World Championships Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Brendan Loughnane (+260) vs. Timur Khizriev (-325) Prediction

Brendan Loughnane is your favorite fighter’s favorite fighter. Very well rounded, good on the mic, and tough as nails. He has 35 professional fights and won the 2022 PFL Featherweight Tournament taking home the championship and the $1 million prize. You can never count him out in a fight but his opponent, Timur Khizriev, is coming in as a 3 to 1 favorite for a reason. 

If Loughnane is able to keep his distance and prevent Khizriev from taking this fight to the mat, he does have a path to victory, by getting in close and utilizing some dirty boxing. I expect Khizriev to push the pace and utilize his superior grappling to drag this fight out and get it to the scorecards. I also expect Loughnane’s experience to play a factor and wouldn’t be surprised if he steals a round or two. 

This is a fight I am looking forward to watching but don’t love any of the prices being set whether it be moneyline or props. The absolute best value that I have seen matches the most closely to my analysis of this fight and that is for Khizriev to get his hand raised after winning all three scorecards after a very tough fight. I will take Loughnane with the points here as my best bet for this scrap.

Pick: Loughnane +5.5 -110

Dakota Ditcheva (-395) vs. Taila Santos (+280) Prediction

On a card stacked with Mancurians, Ditcheva is probably the most intriguing fighter of the bunch. Her rise to stardom in this sport has been on a fast track and with good reason. She will definitely have the crowd in her hometown of Manchester on her side. She is 13-0, with 12 finishes in her professional career and if the PFL could get their sh*t together, she could be a bona fide star and a household name in mixed martial arts.

Her opponent, Talia Santos, is an MMA veteran with some wins against some very impressive fighters during her UFC career including Gillian Robertson, Roxanne Modaferri, and Joanne Wood. After losing a split decision in a title bout to Valentina Shevchenko and getting blanked against Erin Blanchfield and subsequently being released by the UFC, Santos is on a nice little run here since joining the PFL going 3-0 and now fighting for the $1 million and the flyweight title.

Unfortunately for Santos, she arrived to the PFL as Ditcheva was in the midst of her rise to stardom. Santos is an above-average striker and has the edge in grappling but I don’t see her being able to consistently get in Ditcheva’s guard to get takedowns without catching one flush to the side of her temple. 

Ditcheva has to be aware that a spectacular performance and finish here, will cement her as a star and one of the best 125lbers on the planet. I think Santos will be able to keep the pace for a round or two but eventually, Ditcheva will be too much and will secure the finish. The best price that I found that corresponds with this analysis would be for the fight not to start the fourth round at plus money.

Pick: Fight will not start Round 4 +105  

Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (+145) vs Impa Kasanganay (-175) Prediction

Unfortunately for Impa Kasanganay, when most UFC fans here his name, it is instantly associated with him being knocked out cold via spinning back-kick by Joaquin Buckley, a finish that was the inspiration for countless memes. While it will never be forgotten, he has done everything in his power to continue to distance himself from that night.

Kasanganay has been on a tear since joining the PFL. After being released from the UFC in 2021, Kasanganay struggled to stay active and actually became homeless for 6 months, living in his car so he could remain close to his home gym and keep training, rather than move back home to North Carolina with his parents.  

He is 9-1 in his last 10, winning the $1 million LHW tournament last season,  with his only loss coming in a contentious split decision against Johnny Eblen in a crossover Bellator fight.

He comes in as the favorite in this fight for good reason. Yagshimuradov is an experienced fighter and on a 6 fight-win streak of his own. The Ukranian uses his background in Sambo to stay in his opponent's face, take them to the mat, and not let them up, winning decision after decision.

Kasangany is simply more well rounded, younger and faster and is a bad matchup for Yagshimuradov.

The Ukranian does have some power but I expect Kasaganay to cut off the cage and evade any striking that Yagshimuradov throws his way.

Looking at the cage time between these guys and their somewhat contrasting styles, I see this going to the scorecards with Kasanganay.

If you look closely at all of the markets this fight, you will see the oddsmakers have a fairly big discrepancy between EXACT METHOD OF VICTORY DEC (-110) and KASANGANAY VIA DEC (+175), with an 85-cent swing. I am jumping all of this wager at this price.

Pick: Kasanganay via decision (+175)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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