Best Bets for UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

The last pay-per-view card of the year makes up for its lack of star power with its incredible depth and value on the main card.

Jul 30, 2022; Dallas, TX, USA; Alexandre Pantoja. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The UFC has become a global behemoth with over 600 fighters from 80 different countries currently on the roster. Dana White is always looking to expand that worldwide reach and that is backed up by Japanese superstar Kai Asakura being given a title shot in his organizational debut after his departure from Rizin. 

In this article, I'm going to break down my best bets for UFC 310 including my pick for the anticipated main event between Asakura and Alexandre Pantoja.

MMA Betting Record

• Last Week: 1-2 (-1.05 units)
• Overall (since 11/16/24): 7-6 (+2.7 units)

UFC 310 Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Alexandre Pantoja (-250) vs. Kai Asakura (+205) Prediction

The fight game is massive in Japan and if Asakura can get his hand raised in Las Vegas on Saturday night you can expect the UFC to put all of their resources behind him to make him into an international sensation. 

With all that being said, Alexandre Pantoja will be defending his flyweight title for the 3rd time and might be the most slept-on champion on the roster. He did not receive the moniker of The Cannibal for no reason. He is extremely aggressive and well-rounded, with the only hole in his game sometimes lacking the fight IQ to slow things down a little bit and not walk into a firefight. When this happens he has trouble staying composed and not engaging in senseless brawls where he can get caught and if Asakura can keep the pace and exchange strikes, Japan very well may have its first UFC champion.

When the initial nerves of a title fight subside and the dust settles after the first two rounds, I expect Pantoja to use his experience, cardio, and endurance to take over. Asakura is the much bigger fighter and this will be his first time cutting weight for a US-based fight. As the fight drags on, Pantoja should be able to exploit Asakura’s deficiencies on the ground. Once the Brazilian champion wraps his opponent up, it almost always spells the end. 

Best Bet: Pantoja via SUB +150

Shavkat Rahkmonov (-375) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+295) Prediction

In what is being billed as the “People’s Main Event”, this welterweight title eliminator scrap is the most intriguing one on the card. Massive respect for both guys accepting this fight on shorter notice after Belal Muhammad had to pull out of the originally scheduled title match against Rahkmonov with a bone infection. Shavkat certainly would have been within his rights to wait but when Ian Garry proved his championship drive and stepped up to take on the “boogeyman” of the division.

Both fighters are undefeated in their professional career. Rahkmonov has finished all 18 of his opponents and is being billed as the future champion at 170lbs. Ian Machado is 15-0 and while he doesn’t possess the finishing prowess as Rahkmonov, but no one really does.

When looking at the markets for this fight, I understand why Shavkat is almost a 4 to 1 favorite, but when you do a deeper dive into the matchup of respective skill sets for these two fighters, Garry is certainly live here. To be honest I don’t get the hate for the kid here. Sure he is brash and sometimes perceived as cocky, but every time he has stepped into a cage he has backed it up. Ian is a very technical point fighter and an excellent kickboxer and if he can keep Shavkat at range, continuously circle the Octagon

Ultimately I think Rahkmonov’s constant pressure will break through and will somehow solve the puzzle that is Ian Garry and secure a late finish.

Best Bet: Rahkmonov to WIN and over 2.5 rounds -105

Ciryl Gane (-375) vs. Alexander Volkov (+295) Prediction

This fight doesn’t really do anything for me. We already saw them in the Octagon in December of 2021 with Gane winning a decision. Gane burst onto the UFC like a gangbuster and was being hyped up as a prototype for a modern-day heavyweight. Extremely athletic for his size with tons of power, he has never lived up to this billing. He looked like he didn't even want to be in there against Jon Jones and his performance backed that up, barely putting up a fight. He crumbles when he faces any type of adversity.

Volkov is a veteran of this division and is now closer to 40 than he is to 30, but somehow seems to be improving. He is on a four-fight win streak over some of the top heavyweights in the division. He is a massive athlete with above-average striking and is most certainly a live dog here. 

When it all shakes out here, I think this fight stays very close and while somewhat unusual for a heavyweight fight, will make it to the scorecards so I’m going to lay the juice here and take Gane to get a big win here, that puts him right in line for a title shot once the Jones vs. Aspinall drama shakes out.

Best Bet: Gane via DEC -150

Bryce Mitchell (-850) vs. Kron Gracie (+575) Prediction

I along with a lot of other pundits am still a little baffled how this fight is on the main card instead of Sterling vs. Evoleov but Dana White’s disdain of pure grapplers provides some insight as to why. With that being said, this fight has the makings of being a snoozer. Kron Gracie lacks any real striking capabilities and Bryce Mitchell, while more competent on the feet, has never knocked out an opponent in his professional career

Gracie is going to try to bring this fight to the ground, as it is his only path to victory. With the Gracie jiu-jitsu pedigree, he is obviously an elite grappler but that is only if he can get his opponents to fall into his trap and engage with him on the mat. If Bryce can avoid these traps, there is no reason why he shouldn’t get his hand raised after 15 minutes. Vegas obviously agrees with me based on these lines although based on Mithcell’s last performance against Josh Emmett. The best value I could find when going through all of the markets was for Mitchell to 30-27 Gracie here.

Best Bet: Mitchell via UD -120

Nate Landwehr (-130) vs. Doo Ho Choi (+110) Prediction

This fight is certainly in contention for bonuses being handed out by Dana White when the violence over as these two savages bring the pain every time they step into the Octagon. Great matchmaking here by the UFC as evidenced by the odds being so close,  and it’s the perfect fight to open up the main card.

Choi and Landwehr have very similar styles and are both fighters that seem to thrive in chaos. Choi has knocked out 12 opponents and Landwehr has finished 9 of his bouts via KO. I think as close as this fight is, Nate the Train is just a little fresher. Choi got back in the win column recently with a win over Bill Algeo but prior to that he went to a draw with Kyle Nelson and was knocked out in back-to-back fights with Jeremy Stephens and Charles Jourdain. 

Landwehr is extremely violent and somehow seems to excel when his fights get into deep waters and I am leaning towards him getting his hand raised. Choi is definitely capable of walking through the fire and getting a finish himself, but when looking at the markets for this fight to be able to get plus money on this fight ending in a knockout regardless of the victor seems like a no-brainer.

Best Bet: Exact Method of Victory KO +110

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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