Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

Doug Vazquez | Dec 13, 2024

Dec 16, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Leon Edwards (red gloves) fights Colby Covington (blue gloves) during UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

The UFC is on ESPN on Saturday night with a main event in the middleweight ranks with Colby Covington trying to reaffirm his status as a contender.

Covington will face Joaquin Buckley in the main event in what will be a stepping stone match for the winner. Can the former champion reclaim his status as a top contender in the crowded division?

We have picks for a stacked card on ESPN below!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley Predictions and Picks

Watch: ESPN2, ESPN+

Last week

• Wagers: 4-1
• +3.4 units

YTD

• Wagers: 11-7
• +6.1 units

Colby Covington (+235) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-285)

This fight is a hard one to pick. On the one hand you have Joaquin Buckley who is on a five fight win streak and 3-0 in the calendar year. On the other side you have the true company man in Colby Covington who has only fought six times in the last 5 years.

When taking a deeper dive, the reality is Buckley is the rightful favorite. He is younger, stronger, more powerful and much more active. He is coming off of a KO win against Wonderboy, while Covington looked his age in his last fight where he lost a decision to the champion at that time, Leon Edwards. It was confirmed after the fight that he had broken his foot in the first round, which needs to be factored into why Covington wasn’t able to use his cardio and relentless pressure to his advantage. 

Without a doubt, this is the biggest name Buckley has faced and his first main event.  If he is able to keep Colby at distance and prevent most of his takedown attempts he has a clear path to a finish. Colby’s path to victory will be to utilize his cardio and pace to stay in Buckley’s face, keep him out of the center of the Octagon and get this fight into the championship rounds and win a close decision.

I just don’t feel comfortable enough to break out the wallet when deciding on a clear winner here. I think in the early rounds a lot of the fight script will center around a striking affair. Buckley should certainly outpace Covington in the striking but Colby can hold his own and I think there will be a lot of volume striking in the first two rounds.

BET: Total significant strikes landed 180+ (+100)

Cub Swanson (+136) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-162)

This is a fight that could potentially be in the FOTN discussion if Cub Swanson wasn’t well past his prime, after making 24 walks to the Octagon prior to this scrap with the hometown Billy Q. Swanson’s fight with Dooho Choi is in the Hall of Fame for a reason and when he hangs up the gloves for good, it will still be a fight that fans talk about for years to come. Forever a true company man, with a loss here Swanson should start considering and endgame

Billy Q. is no stranger to being in wars himself. A relatively late comer to the UFC’s roster, Quarantillo has alternated losses since his 2020 knockout of Kyle Nelson, most recently getting submitted by a rising contender at 145 lbs in Youseff Zalal in March of this year. 

When it all shakes out, BIlly Q. should come out with a win in front of his hometown Tampa crowd. He needs to stay in Cub’s face and utilize up-close dirty boxing and pick him apart. While not into his forties like his opponent, Quarantillo is approaching that mark soon and needs this win to remain relevant. 

Going to hedge a little here on Cub. With his Octagon experience and well roundedness in all aspects of mixed martial arts, I do envision a scenario where Billy Q reverts to his reckless ways and gets caught and the fight ending in a KO provides great value.

BET: Exact method of victory KO +150

Manel Kape (-375) vs. Bruno Silva (+295)

Kape on a decent run and was on a cusp of title run and then lost a split decision to Muhammed Mokaev at UFC 304, in what might have been the worst fight on a PPV card this year. It was so bad in fact, that the UFC did not renew Mokaev’s contract even though he is objectively one of the top flyweights in the world.

Kape could get back in both the fans and the UFC’s good graces with a performance that is commensurate to his skill level. Silva is no slouch but there is almost zero chance he will ever compete for a title while on the flip slide if Kape can put everything together and not get off to sluggish starts, he could realistically be put into a championship fight. 

Diving into all of the markets, the oddsmakers seem to agree with my line of thinking when analyzing each fighters path to victory. I’m going to lay a tiny amount of juice here in what is mostly a coin flip and go with my gut on the most likely outcome.

BET: Manel Kape via DEC -105

Dustin Jacoby (+250) vs. Vitor Petrino (-310)

This fight probably won’t motivate casual South Florida UFC fans to make the drive to downtown Tampa, but the stakes are pretty high for both fighters as neither has lived up their potential. It will be a fight of contrasting striking styles, with Jacoby thriving when he is able to keep his opponent at distance, and on the flipside Petrino is best when he is able to get in tight quarters and keep the pace up with volume phonebooth style boxing. 

The oddsmakers have this one wrong as this is a lot closer to a 50/50 fight than the current odds of making Petrino a 3 to 1 favorite dictates. This will ultimately be a case of who blinks first and who is able to use their skill set to dictate the pace of the fight. Jacoby’s path to victory is to stay moving and keep this fight at distance on the outskirts of the Octagon. 

For Petrino to get his hand raised and prove the bookmakers right with this inflated line, he needs to keep the fight at close distance and wear down Jacoby with body shots, elbows and knees. I see the most likely outcome is for this fight to drag on and get to the judges scorecards. I’m leaning on towards the favorite, but Jacoby is certainly a live dog.

BET: Exact method of victory DEC +130

Adrian Yanez (+180) vs. Daniel Marcos (-218)

Without a doubt this fight has the highest likelihood of providing a banger for the fans at Amalie Arena to open the last main card of 2024. Both of these dudes can put on some highlight reel moments with Yanez being the more cerebral of the two. 

I expect Marcos to come out swinging, trying to end this fight early and secure a performance bonus to help with some Christmas shopping. That could also prove to be dangerous for him as Yanez has great head movement and is an elite counterstriker. Yanez is the more experienced and composed martial artist and is certainly a live dog here. 

We have had a couple good weeks here and while I’m tempted to sprinkle some on the dog here, I ultimately think that Marcos’ pace and pressure will ultimately break through and get a KO finish and getting even money on the fight not making it the scorecards is a good place to be in.

BET: Fight NOT to go the distance +100

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