Best College Football Bets for Week 1 (Bet Texas A&M to Cover vs. Notre Dame)

Reed Wallach | Aug 30, 2024

Sep 16, 2023; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Conner Weigman (15) warms up before the game against the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The first full slate of the college football season is finally here with a handful of marquee matchups.

There will be plenty of intrigue around the Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M game as each team has some key changes across the roster and on the sidelines, but is there a clear side to take?

I have three best bets on some of the best games on the Saturday card, keep reading to find out which I'm on!

Best College Football Bets for Week 1

• UNLV (+3) vs. Houston
• Fresno State vs. Michigan UNDER 45.5
• Texas A&M (-3) vs. Notre Dame

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

UNLV vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

While the quarterback competition may give pause for sports bettors, I’m buying into the system in place from Barry Odom and his OC Marion to keep this Rebels offense performing at a high level. 

The Rebels ranked 39th in EPA/Play and returned three starters on the offensive line as well as nearly all key contributors in the skill position corps. So, while quarterback may be a question, the rest of the roster is ready to roll on offense. 

On defense, Odom’s unit fell apart down the stretch of 2023, but did a great job in the transfer portal to rebuild the roster, including landing the likes of former Power Four safety Jalen Catalon. This unit can likely take a step forward in 2024 with more talent on hand and another year of Odom’s coaching. 

Meanwhile, Fritz takes over at Houston with a skeleton crew that makes many believe this will be a considerable rebuild. While Smith showed some flashes, it's a tall ask for Houston to make a big jump from 73rd in EPA/Play last season. 

I’m going to bank on the more proven system that is further along at the start of the season in terms of implementing a scheme, and back the Rebels as small underdogs. 

PICK: UNLV +3

Fresno State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan may have plenty of turnover, but I expect new head coach Sherrone Moore to implement a similar style to the one that yielded a National Championship in 2023, a run-first offense that leans on an elite defense. 

With Texas on deck, the Wolverines have little incentive to deviate from its preferred game script in 2024 and keep questions of Orji’s effectiveness as a passer in doubt to keep the Longhorns guessing. 

Michigan played at the third slowest pace last season in terms of seconds per play, the team will likely lean on its elite defense that still has future pros all over including Mason Graham and Will Johnson and implement a run-focused scheme with Orji, Donovan Edwards, and Kalel Mullings moving the sticks. 

I expect very few snaps in this one and limited possessions, which is going to keep this game under the total as Michigan gears up for Texas next week at home. 

PICK: UNDER 45.5

Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Both teams have similar profiles through some of the changes along the roster with similar goals as well: the expanded College Football Playoff. 

However, offseason news has shifted this market. After opening as a small road favorite in College Station, the Fighting Irish are now field goal underdogs on the road due to injuries along the offensive line to Notre Dame, who need to replace three starters, including the No. 5 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft Joe Alt. Alt’s replacement, Charles Jagusah suffered a torn pectoral muscle that will cost him the season. Against a top-flight defensive line that ranked fifth in tackles for loss, third in line yards, and fourth in EPA/Rush, Notre Dame’s new-look offense may be up against it with injuries in the trenches. 

Meanwhile, Texas A&M comes in far more complete on offense in Klein’s offensive system that thrived at Kansas State. Given the current makeup of each team, I believe the Aggies come in with an edge, and Klein’s ability to scheme up run plays can open up the passing game later on. 

The low total checks with the style of game I expect, a high-level chess match that may lack explosive plays early. With the Fighting Irish struggling to hold up offensively with a patchwork offensive line, I expect we see the Aggies push ahead and lean on the ground game while avoiding giving an elite Notre Defense (top 10 in EPA/Play in its own right last season) any sort of openings. 

I'll back the Aggies at home.

PICK: Texas A&M -3

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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