Best College Football Bets for Week 10: Which College Football Playoff Hopeful is on Upset Alert?

Reed Wallach | Nov 1, 2024

Oct 26, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) passes the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

With an eye on the first College Football Playoff rankings next Tuesday, who can be in trouble ahead of it in Week 10 action this Saturday?

Look at road games for the likes of Ole Miss, who travel to SEC foe Arkansas, who has been a thorn in the side of CFP contenders all season. Can the Razorbacks pull another home upset and spoil the Rebels season?

Here are three best bets on some of the biggest games on the Week 10 card, including a way to attack Texas A&M's road trip to South Carolina.

Best College Football Bets for Week 10

Arkansas (+7) vs. Ole Miss
Minnesota vs. Illinois OVER 44.5
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina First Half UNDER 22.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

While Lane Kiffin is known for being the architect of high-powered offenses, it hasn’t resulted in overs in the betting market.

The Rebels have been an under-machine this season, going under the closing total in seven of eight games in 2024. The team’s offense has been elite, but the defense has far surpassed expectations. Further, with injuries mounting on the offensive side of the ball, the team has struggled to run up the scoreboard in SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points in four contests.

The team will travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas, who has been vulnerable to big passing plays, but has also showcased a strong defensive line that can put the Rebels in obvious passing downs. The Razorbacks defense is 38th in EPA/Play on early downs, and 36th in average third and fourth down success rate. Ole Miss has struggled on third down relative to expectations, only 49th in third and fourth down success rate.

Meanwhile, we saw Arkansas implement a rush-heavy script against Tennessee in a stunning upset a few weeks back, and can we see something similar here?

Arkansas is an elite rushing unit, top 10 in the country in success rate on the ground. Further, the team has been fantastic at extending drives, converting 48.5% of third downs which is 12th in the country.

I like the Hogs to be a running dog in this one and keep it within score, and possibly pull the upset.

Pick: Arkansas +7.5

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

While I think Illinois is being overlooked as a home underdog, my preference in this game is on the over.

Both offenses have moved the ball nicely this season, and have avenues to attacking the other.

While Minnesota’s passing game has come alive with Brosmer under center, running back Darius Taylor is in for a big afternoon against a Fighting Illini defense that has struggled to contain the rush all season.

Illinois ranks 132nd in defensive line yards and 111th in EPA/Rush. Against a healthy Taylor, who is averaging nearly five yards per carry, I expect the Gophers to be playing from ahead of the sticks in this one.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has been aided by some good fortune this season, playing USC in a windstorm and avoiding any competent passing game to date. While Illinois has struggled against its elite competition through the air, this group can test an overrated Minnesota secondary.

It all stems from the Golden Gophers’ lack of pressure, ranking 71st in pass rush grade this season, per Pro Football Focus.

If Altmyer has time, he has been elite all year long. When he is kept clean, Altmyer is completing two-thirds of his passes with 14 touchdowns to only three interceptions. When he is under pressure, he is completing 50% of his passes with only one touchdown.

This total is not only underrating both offenses, but also each defense, and I like the game to get over the low number.

Pick: OVER 45

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

This game sets up to be a defensive struggle between two rush-first teams that have elite defensive line play.

Whether it’s Reed or Weigman under center for the Aggies, the team is focused on the ground game. The team is top 10 in rush rate this season, and if the team goes with Reed, it will be even more grounded with the zone read game playing a big role.

However, with a full week to prepare for the quarterback keeper, South Carolina’s elite defensive line can keep a lid on it. The Gamecocks are top 10 in yards per carry allowed this season.

On the other side, South Carolina's offensive line is horrific, especially in SEC against elite defensive lines. The team has allowed the second most sacks in the country this season and is outside the top 100 in EPA/Play. With no deep passing game, Texas A&M can rush LaNorris Sellers early and often.

This game will likely be dictated by field position and who avoids the catastrophic error.

I expect the clock to be moving throughout this contest, but especially in the first half as each team looks to ease into this game and avoid falling too far behind.

Pick: First Half Under 22.5

Best College Football Bets for Week 10

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

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