Best College Football Bets for Week 11: Trust Colorado's Offense to Shine vs. Texas Tech

Reed Wallach | 5 Hours Ago

Oct 19, 2024; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of the jersey of Colorado Buffalos quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff draws closer and closer, and teams will get to put on the final touches on its respective resume in the last few weeks of the regular season.

For teams like Colorado, the College Football Playoff picture has become a possibility only recently, and the team's offense has a showcase game against a porous Texas Tech defense that has struggled to defend the pass all season. Can this be a great opportunity for the Buffaloes to build up its postseason hopes as well as the Heisman Trophy candidacy of Travis Hunter and Sheduer Sanders?

Here's how to bet Colorado and Texas Tech as well as two other marquee matchups on the Week 11 slate.

Best College Football Bets for Week 11

Colorado Team Total OVER 33.5
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt UNDER 45.5
Alabama vs. LSU OVER 58.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Colorado vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

This is setting up for a showcase for the Colorado offense as the Texas Tech defense is among the worst in the Big 12.

While the team was able to limit Iowa State to only 22 points in the upset win in Week 10, the balance of the season shows that this Red Raiders defense is quite poor.

The team checks in 107th in EPA/Play with only 11 sacks on the season (122th nationally). This season, Texas Tech has allowed 34, 35, 22, 41, 22, 21, 37 and 51 points. Overall the group checks in 120th in points per game allowed.

Not to mention, Texas Tech has injuries building up on the defensive side of the ball in addition to being an already poor unit.

So, can Colorado take advantage?

I say yes.

The unit continues to score in bunches with Sanders leading a dynamic passing game and the emergence of a capable running game that is buoyed by Isaiah Augustave. This season, Colorado is averaging over 31 points per game and checks in 36th in points per drive.

Each team plays at a top 30 tempo, so there should be plenty of snaps and explosive plays, but my favorite angle is the Colorado team total over, right in line with the team’s season-long average.

PICK: Colorado Team Total OVER 33.5

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

South Carolina’s defensive line will look to create havoc against a potentially hobbled Pavia on Saturday, which is surely the matchup to watch.

The Gamecocks defensive line is elite, fourth in the country in sacks and 13th in EPA/Play. If the team is able to get to Pavia and put the Commodores behind the sticks, it may be tough sledding for this Vandy offense that is reliant on getting into favorable down and distances as the unit isn’t overly explosive.

As for the other side of the ball, I’m going to look past the epic game from Sellers and the Gamecocks offense last week as the team was in an advantageous situation against a Texas A&M defense on fumes in a hostile environment.

Over the balance of the season, the South Carolina offense has been quite poor. The unit is 96th in EPA/Play and has allowed the most sacks in the country, but most importantly, can’t succeed on early downs.

South Carolina is 128th in the country in terms of average third down distance, which is going to make life difficult against a Vanderbilt defense that has been shaky on third down this season, 79th in third down conversion percentage allowed.

I believe this game can be dictated by field position as both offenses struggle to find their footing throughout.

PICK: UNDER 45.5

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

This has all the makings of a high scoring affair.

With a week to prepare, I trust Kalen DeBoer to unlock Jalen Milroe in a similar way that we saw him torch the Georgia defense for much of that matchup. While much has been made about the progress of the LSU defense, we saw the group struggle to contain dual-threat quarterback Marcell Reed, and Milroe is a far more advanced version of that.

The LSU defense is below average in terms of EPA/Play, 78th in the country, and are 123rd in explosive rush rate. Without the ability to put a true quarterback spy on Milroe, I expect DeBoer to unleash him in the run game that will later open up deep passes for the likes of Ryan Williams.

Meanwhile, the Alabama defense continues to have issues in the secondary. The group is 116th in explosive pass defense, which is impactful against an elite LSU passing game that throws the ball at a top 5 rate in the country.

The Tigers don’t trust the run game enough to lean on it, so this has become a pass-only offense. However, Alabama’s defense has struggled to slow down the opposition through the air. The team is 54th in sacks, so I believe that LSU can hold up fine in pass protection at home despite being down offensive lineman Garret Dellinger for this one.

I think both offenses have the leg up in this one, and we are in for plenty of points.

PICK: OVER 58.5

Best College Football Bets for Week 11

Colorado vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

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