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Best College Football Bets for Week 12: How to Bet Over/Under in Texas vs. Arkansas, Tennessee vs. Georgia
With only a few weeks left in the college football season, the College Football Playoff race continues to heat up.
For the likes of Texas and Tennessee, each team hits the road in hopes of maintaining its College Football Playoff standing. For Texas, the team will look to out-pace an elite offense while Tennessee will look to get over the hump against rival Georgia, who has had the Vols number for years, but may be at its weakest following a loss last week.
Here's three bets to make in Week 12 with an eye on ongoing conference championship races.
Best College Football Bets for Week 12
- Texas vs. Arkansas OVER 57.5
- Arizona State +7.5 vs. Kansas State
- Tennessee vs. Georgia UNDER 48
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick
While Arkansas may attempt to shorten the game with its ground-based approach, I believe that the team is going to struggle to slow down the Texas passing attack with its shaky secondary, which can lead to a higher-scoring affair.
The Hogs secondary is 114th in EPA/Pass this season, which can lead to a ton of chunk gains for Ewers and the Longhorns' passing attack.
However, I believe this Texas defense is a bit inflated due to an easy schedule this season. The team hasn’t played an offense inside the top 40 in EPA/Play this season, and the best it has faced was Georgia, who scored 30 points on them.
Arkansas is 15th in EPA/Play and will have a week to prepare for this Texas defense and should be the healthiest it's been since the team beat Tennessee in an upset.
I think we see points on the board in this one, and I’ll go over.
PICK: OVER 57.5
Arizona State vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick
Arizona State continues to be one of the great bets in college football this season, 7-2 against the number on the season, while Kansas State continues to be an overrated outfit in a crowded Big 12.
While the Sun Devils were fortunate to pull out a win against UCF at home last week, needing a pair of defense and special team scores to stay in the conference title race, the team did so without its lead running back Cam Skattebo, who is questionable for this one.
Skattebo helps, but this is an Arizona State team that should be able to test a shaky Kansas State pass defense that is below average in coverage grading and outside the top 100 in pass rush grading, per Pro Football Focus.
Sam Leavitt continues to keep the ball out of harm's way, he has three turnover-worthy plays on the season, and if the team gets Skattebo back, he can be live for an upset against a Kansas State team that has been overrated for much of this season.
Further, don’t sleep on Avery Johnson, who continues to be shaky as a passer. The ASU defense is elite against the run, top 25 in EPA/Rush. If the team forces obvious passing situations for Johnson, this game can be tight throughout.
PICK: Arizona State +7.5
Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
The uncertainty around Iamaleava makes it a tough game to call in certainty as we won’t get any clear updates until the Wednesday injury report comes out from the SEC. Meanwhile, the team’s star running back, Dylan Sampson, also left with an injury in the Vols win against Mississippi State but returned to finish the game.
With Tennessee’s offense far from 100%, it will be even more difficult for Josh Heupel’s group to perform against a Georgia defense that has given his unique offense fits since he arrived in Knoxville. In three games against Georgia, Heupel’s Tennessee teams have scored 17, 13 and 10, respectively.
On the road, with an injured quarterback and lack of an explosive passing game, this may be a chore for the Vols offense.
Meanwhile, this Georgia offense continues to be shaky. Beck is making questionable decisions at all times, and the Bulldogs offense has made it a point to try and get the ground game going in hopes of avoiding turnover-worthy plays from the quarterback.
The Bulldogs' lack of dynamic talent at the skill positions is apparent, and Beck is regressing heavily. Under pressure this season, Beck is completing 35% of his passes with three big-time throws to 10 turnover-worthy plays. He’ll be facing a Tennessee pass rush that is 15th in pass rush grading, per Pro Football Focus.
With injuries and a lack of playmaking from both passing games, each team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate, I landed on the under in this one.
This game can be a slog, as has been most of these two teams' games for much of the season, and I think this one finishes in a race to the low 20s.
PICK: UNDER 48
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Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.