Best College Football Bets for Week 13: Bet Arizona State to Win Massive Big 12 Showdown with BYU

Reed Wallach | Nov 22, 2024

Nov 16, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) carries the ball against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

With only two weeks left in the college football regular season, the pressure is on to perform and everybody is looking to bet on the biggest games on the board.

Quickly, Arizona State and BYU have become the center of the crowded Big 12 race. Who can position themselves for a Big 12 title berth next week in the regular season finale? Keep reading to find our best bets for that Big 12 tilt as well as a College Football Playoff decider between Army and Notre Dame as well as Ole Miss traveling to Florida.

It’s our Week 13 best bets!

Best College Football Bets for Week 13

Ole Miss vs. Florida UNDER 55
Arizona State (-3) vs. BYU
Notre Dame (-14) vs. Army

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

While Ole Miss did have an outburst against Arkansas on the road prior to the Georgia game, scoring 63 points in Fayetteville, this offense has been kept quiet for much of SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points against league opponents.

Of course, the Rebels will get a week to rest up its banged-up offensive line and hopefully get star wide receiver Tre Harris back from injury, but this Florida defense has looked the part all season long.

The Gators' defense is outside the top 70 in EPA/Play, but the defensive line is 26th in total sacks and the group bolsters an elite rush defense that is top 40 in Pro Football Focus’ grading. So, if the defensive line can hold up, can the unit get off the field and shorten this game?

I envision we see a similar game script to the LSU game, where Florida needs to lean on its defense and cash in on its scarce opportunities with a banged-up quarterback under center.

However, if this game goes sideways, I believe we see the Gators shrink up and possibly even pull Lagway against a top-five pass rush according to PFF, and try to stay healthy for the team’s season finale against Florida State where it tries to clinch bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss has gone under in eight of 10 games this season, and I lean that way yet again.

PICK: UNDER 55

Arizona State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

This matchup sets up nicely for Arizona State, who has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Let’s start with the Sun Devils defense, which ranks top 15 in EPA/Rush, and can limit the BYU rushing attack that has been trending up since lead back LJ Martin returned from injury. If Martin can’t get downhill and get BYU into favorable down and distances, I believe that the Sun Devils can get off the field with relative ease.

Retzlaff has had some strong showings, but there are still plenty of suspect plays on the field, making 12 big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. There was typical regression coming his way, and it happened against Kansas at home. How will he respond on the road?

Meanwhile, Sam Leavitt of Arizona State has been the engineer of Dillingham’s offense in the passing game, playing sound football all season and keeping the ball out of harm's way. Leavitt has made eight big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.

There should be opportunities for Leavitt to take some shots down the field in this one as Arizona State should stay ahead of schedule for this one with Skattebo on the ground against a BYU defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush.

All signs point to an Arizona State win at home.

PICK: Arizona State -3

Notre Dame vs. Army Prediction and Pick

As we saw when Navy stepped up in class to face Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish have a gear that the service academies don’t have.

Army, like Navy, has benefitted from an incredibly easy schedule that is arguably the easiest in all of college football this season. While the team is catching two touchdowns against Notre Dame, the market may not catch up to the actual quality of the Black Knights due to its fantastic raw statistical profile.

However, this will be the first time that Army plays a top 50 defense or a top 75 offense in terms of EPA/Play, which is incredibly impactful because Notre Dame is top 15 in both categories.

While the same concerns can be said for Notre Dame, who has beat up on an easy schedule since a Week 1 trip to College Station in which it beat Texas A&M, the team has a severe talent gap and also has already prepped for the triple option this season with its win against Navy.

Army’s defensive line has been suspect all season, ranking 72nd in EPA/Rush and outside the top 100 in tackles for loss. Notre Dame’s run game should be able to overpower the Black Knights on defense and win at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

I expect a humbling first loss for Army at Yankee Stadium and for Notre Dame to cover the two touchdown spread.

Pick: Notre Dame -14

Best College Football Bets for Week 13

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Arizona State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame vs. Army Prediction and Pick

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