Best College Football Bets for Week 14: Can Vanderbilt Pull Another Stunner in SEC Play vs. Tennessee?

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) runs aways from South Carolina Gamecocks’s defense during the first half at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024. / Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rivalry week is here and its the final stand for a handful of teams and the beginning of the postseason for others.

For a team like Tennessee, if the team wins on Saturday against Vanderbilt, the Vols will be in the College Football Playoff. However, the Commodores are enjoying a massive season for the program with wins over the likes of Alabama already on its ledger. Can the team pull another stunner on Saturday?

We have you covered for three of the biggest games on the Saturday Week 14 card.

Best College Football Bets for Week 14

Michigan vs. Ohio State (-20.5)
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt (+11)
Kansas State vs. Iowa State OVER 51.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

The interesting part of this game to me is how Michigan’s defense does against an Ohio State offensive line that is down three of its starting lineman.

The Buckeyes did struggle at times against Indiana's defensive line, especially in short yardage situations, which can be impactful as the Wolverines have one of the best groups in the trenches in the country.

If the Ohio State running game can’t get going, the team can lean on its aerial attack, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has made it clear that this is a run-first group that likes to utilize that to open up the passing game.

There could be some stalled drives in this one, but the point spread correctly shows the gap on the other side of the ball, where Michgian will struggle to move the ball against Ohio State’s defense.

The Buckeyes let up an opening drive touchdown to Indiana, but after that, essentially shut down the Hoosiers offense. Outside of that drive, Indiana averaged less than two yards per play.

Michigan isn’t a threat in the passing game, outside the top 120 nationally in EPA/Pass, and the offense likely won’t be able to sustain drives with a run-only approach with a talent gap in the trenches.

Now, Ohio State may want to run this game up if the game gets to garbage time, so any full game bets could be hanging onto that. I’d only lay it with the Buckeyes in this game as I can’t see the Wolverines keeping up for a full 60 minutes.

PICK: Ohio State -19

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

The veer-and-shoot offense that Josh Huepel runs hasn’t connected in terms of big plays as the team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass and rush rate.

Vanderbilt has done a remarkable job all season with limiting big plays and the amount of possessions in the game as the team has limited mistakes and been able to stay on the field.

With fewer possessions, its harder to get margin on a team if it's able to get timely stops. While the Tennessee defensive line is among the best in the country, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to stack up in SEC play and string together quality drives. The ‘Dores rank 52nd in the country in points per drive at over two.

Tennessee’s offense has been well below expectations all season as the team relies on its lead back, Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load. Sampson the Tennessee offense averages over five yards per carry, but the Commodores defense is a top 50 rush defense in terms of EPA/Play.

Vanderbilt has covered in all six games that it has been an underdog of more than 10 points as the market fails to capture this team’s true power rating. While Tennessee has the significant talent edge, I do believe Vandy has the avenues to make the Vols’ sweat for its CFP berth.

With fewer possessions and an offense that has been shaky at times this season, only 54th in EPA/Play, I believe that the home underdog can stay close yet again.

Tennessee has beaten one SEC team by more than 10 points this season, the league’s worst unit Mississippi State, and I don’t see it happening here.

PICK: Vanderbilt +10.5

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

I believe both offenses have a path to success in this game.

While neither offense plays super fast, the over is my preferred method of attack as each offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease due to its preferred method of play.

Let’s start with Iowa State, who has a top 35 passing game in terms of EPA/Play and is 14th in passing plays of 20 or more yards down the field. That’s massive against Kansas State, who has been shaky defending the pass all season, ranking outside the top 110 in explosive pass rate on the year. I’ll give the edge to Becht and the ‘Clones.

Meanwhile, with Johnson being a rush threat again after battling some nagging injuries, I believe we see the KSU offense start to look like we have come to expect this season. The team wants to lean on its ground game with Johnson and lead running back DJ Giddens and should see little resistance against an Iowa State defense that is allowing about five yards per carry and is bottom 40 in EPA/Rush.

I think both offenses move the ball and get a handful of scoring chances and send this game over the total.

PICK: OVER 51.5

Best College Football Bets for Week 14

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

More College Football Stories