Best College Football Bets for Week 4: Can BYU Compete with Kansas State?

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 14, 2024; Laramie, Wyoming, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) warms up before the game against the Wyoming Cowboys at Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images / Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Saturday's college football card is full of interesting games both in conference and out of it, and we are here to get you set with all the betting action.

You can find plenty of betting notes on the biggest games on the card here, but this is going to focus on our three favorite bets for Saturday's slate, including USC vs. Michigan and the late-night meeting between BYU and Kansas State.

Best College Football Bets for Week 4

• Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech UNDER 45
• USC vs. Michigan UNDER 44.5
• BYU (+6.5) vs. Kansas State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick

This game will likely be a defensive struggle with Rutgers preferring to keep the ball on the ground with Monangi and lean on its defense to win the field position battle. 

While it’s only a two-game sample, Rutgers has run the ball a ton, ranking 13th in rush play percentage at nearly 66%. The Scarlet Knights don’t have a variable passing game with Aitan Kalikamanis unable to string together quality play dating back to his time at Minnesota, so I expect Rutgers to attack this potentially vulnerable Virginia Tech front seven.

Meanwhile, Va. Tech has made it clear that it doesn’t trust Drones throwing much, ranking 29th in run play percentage at nearly 60% and the team will struggle to move the ball against a Rutgers defense that ranked 22nd in yards per play allowed last season and have picked up where it left off last year, allowing about a quarter of a yard fewer thus far (4.73 vs. 4.99). 

This game should be tight throughout with neither offense equipped to get separation. I lean towards the dog catching over a field goal, but my preference is on the under. 

PICK: UNDER 45

USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

The junior quarterback is not a threat as a passer whatsoever but is an athletic rusher who can extend plays and turn uphill to move the chains with the dynamic running back group of Donnovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings. 

However, this is a revamped USC defense under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who has made a big turnaround quickly, shutting down LSU in its opening game on a neutral site (15th percentile of EPA/Rush, per GameonPaper). Without a viable passing game, Michigan will look to play keep away and field position in hopes of staying competitive. 

I don’t believe Michigan can keep it close, and USC can use a similar game script that Texas used, avoiding the run game into the strength of the Michigan defense, while spreading out the secondary with the quick pass game to put the ball in space. 

USC has the likes of Zachariah Branch who can rip off chunk plays at wide receiver with his blazing speed similar to how Texas picked apart Michigan at the Big House. While Moss may take several sacks (he was sacked three times in the LSU game) in his first true road start, the Trojans have a viable offense and an improved defense while Michigan can’t string together quality plays. 

The under is my favorite bet in this one as I can’t trust Michigan to put up much on the scoreboard.  

PICK: UNDER 44.5

BYU vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick

The Cougars are a live underdog on Saturday night in Provo as I’m extremely concerned about this Kansas State team traveling and maintaining the high level of play that it showed against Arizona at home. 

K-State was gashed by Tulane in Week 2 and this is a BYU team that has a lot of similarities to the Green Wave at quarterback with both BYU’s Retzlaff and Tulane’s Mensah taking shots down the field and stretching the secondary. 

With the threat of the deep pass, with stud wide receiver Chase Roberts catching passes, BYU will be able to test the Wildcats secondary. 

Meanwhile, BYU has shown a sturdy front seven that can get in the backfield, racking up 19 tackles for loss in three games. I’m curious if the Cougars can put K-State in obvious passing situations and turn Johnson into a passer out of necessity. 

Johnson has made four big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season, per Pro Football Focus, and has completed 50% of his throws of more than 10 yards, making up 33% of his passes. 

Johnson isn’t trustworthy yet to lay points on the road, grab the Cougars as underdogs. 

PICK: BYU +6.5

---

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.