Best College Football Bets for Week 8: How to Bet Over/Under in LSU vs. Arkansas and Miami (Florida) vs. Louisville

Reed Wallach | Oct 18, 2024

Linebacker Whit Weeks 40 sacks quarterback Jaxson Dart 2 as the LSU Tigers take on the Ole Miss Rebels at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA. Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024.Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Conference play has consumed college football, and with more data on each team, we can continue to sharpen our skillset and focus on how to profit on each team's emerging tendencies.

Following a thriller at home, LSU is on the road with a re-energized defense to face a run-first Arkansas team that has also been better than expected on defense. Is this shaping up to be an under game?

While that SEC showdown may be a defensive minded, I expect plenty of points in the biggest ACC matchup of the day between Miami and Louisville.

Get the scoop below with all of our favorite bets for Week 8 action.

Best College Football Bets for Week 8

• Miami (Florida) vs. Louisville OVER 59.5
• Michigan -3 vs. Illinois
• LSU vs. Arkansas UNDER 56.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami (Florida) vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

I think there can be fireworks from both offenses in this one. 

Both teams check in top 30 in explosive pass rate and each team prefers to take to the air, which I think will offset some of the concerns of run blocking in this one. 

Louisville is 89th in rush rate while Miami is 116th, and the weak point of each defense is in the secondary. Both defenses do a good job of getting to the quarterback, each top 20 in tackles for loss and top 30 in defensive line yards, but both are middling when it comes to limiting chunk passes. 

With both teams forcing the issue through the air, I see points going up on the board in bunches. Miami has had its discipline tested in the last two games, and while a clean effort out of the BYE week is possible, I don’t believe it has the ability to slow down the likes of Ja’Corey Brooks or Caullin Lacy in the passing game for the Cardinals under Jeff Brohm’s coaching. 

I’ll stay off the side and bank on points in this ACC showdown. 

PICK: OVER 59.5

Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

This feels like a serious step up in class for Illinois, and Michigan’s defense can put a lid on what’s been a much-improved offense with Altmyer under center. 

The Wolverines' defense is incredibly aggressive and has the havoc drivers on the defensive line to put Altmyer under pressure. This season, Altmyer is completing less than 55% of his passes with seven turnover-worthy plays under pressure this season. Compare that to when Altmyer is not under pressure – he is completing 72% of his passes with a 13-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio – it's fair to be skeptical about the team’s ability to move the ball on the UM front. 

Meanwhile, Michigan may have serious concerns about its passing game, but it may not need much on Saturday. The Illinois defensive line has struggled all season, 105th in defensive line yards and 96th in yards per carry allowed. If the Wolverines are able to hand it to Mullings – and Donovan Edwards – and find success on the ground, the team is going to be able to stay ahead of the chains and find enough scores to outpace the home underdog. 

PICK: Michigan -3

LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

I believe that LSU will need to take on a similar game plan to this game as it did last week, featuring plenty of Nussmeier passing opportunities in clear passing situations, which will allow Arkansas to commit more resources to the passing game. 

While Nussmeier has a big arm and can stress opposing defenses, it’s worth noting that the Tigers posted an average EPA/Play (49th percentile) and success rate (16th percentile) at home against Ole Miss compared to games last season. Now, the team gets a fresh Arkansas defense on its home field that has proven it can hold up in SEC play. 

Meanwhile, I imagine Arkansas looks to keep this game on the ground, whether Green is available or not. This season, Arkansas is 19th in EPA/Rush this season, a key edge against LSU’s national average EPA/Rush mark. 

LSU’s defense looks to be much improved, and I believe Arkansas will be willing to slow this down and chew clock on the ground. 

This game should be another thriller, but I’m siding with the under. 

PICK: UNDER 57

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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