Best College Football Bets Today for College Football Playoff Semifinals

Reed Wallach | 10 Hours Ago

Dec 31, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) rushes for a touchdown against the Boise State Broncos during the second half in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Who will play for the National Championship? 

We will find out this weekend with a pair of semifinal matchups in the College Football Playoff on Thursday when Penn State and Notre Dame meet in the Orange Bowl and Friday when Texas and Ohio State face off in the Cotton Bowl. 

Who has the edge? What’s the best bet? Don’t worry, we have you covered below with a pair of bets for each game!

Best College Football Bets for the College Football Playoff Semifinals

• Penn State +1.5 vs. Notre Dame
• Ohio State Team Total OVER 29.5 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick 

This matchup figures to be determined in the trenches with both teams paced by elite defensive line play and a run-first mindset on offense. 

However, it’s the counters that have me siding with Penn State in this one. 

The Nittany Lions have shown that it can create explosive plays in the passing game with the precise Allar (67% completion percentage with 20 big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays) ranking top 10 in EPA/Pass. 

Meanwhile, the Notre Dame passing game is very limited. The team is 48th in EPA/Pass with an explosive pass rate that ranks 120th in the country. The team’s best course of action is to use the quick passing game with the likes of Jordan Faison to create manageable third downs and methodically move down the field. 

However, the ND offense may be limited with Jeremiyah Love re-aggravating a knee injury in the Sugar Bowl. While he’s expected to play, he may be limited. A big blow to the team’s most explosive weapon on offense alongside Leonard. 

Further, with Allar’s ability to avoid turnovers, I don’t envision Notre Dame getting many chances to capitalize on a short field as it did in the Georgia game. This Fighting Irish defense led the nation in turnovers gained in the regular season (28), but Penn State is tied for 15th in the nation in turnovers lost with a sure-handed approach on offense. 

There’s not much separating these two teams, but I believe over the course of 60 minutes, the Nittany Lions have the ability to diversify their attack on both sides of the field to punch its ticket to the National Championship Game. 

PICK: Penn State +1.5

Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Ohio State’s market rating is surging up as the team is fresh off a demolition of the No. 1 overall seed Oregon while Texas continues to show shaky play at times. 

The Buckeyes are a big favorite in this one and it's hard to look past what the team has done over its last two games to justify this point spread. 

The Longhorns' defense is elite, but will surely be tested against the Buckeyes passing game which has leaned into its strength at wide receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. The two wide receivers have combined for 23 catches and 442 yards with five touchdowns in the two postseason games. 

Texas’ secondary has proven to be elite, but the team hasn’t faced many elite passing games this season. Going back through the Longhorns season, the team hasn’t faced a top 20 passing game this season – Georgia is the closest at 22nd – and Ohio State checks in fourth in that metric. There’s a case to be made that OSU is first given some of the overall schematic changes it made in the postseason. 

Further, Texas is entering a bit gassed after playing nearly 38 minutes of defense against Arizona State as well as two overtimes. This team will need to be firing on all cylinders to keep up with the Buckeyes, and it's fair to question if it truly can keep up. 

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes defense did an excellent job of putting bodies in front of Dillon Gabriel as he dropped back, completely stymying the Oregon offense for the first quarter plus as it built a 34-0 lead. 

The Buckeyes defense has been an elite one all season, top of the country in many statistics, including the best success rate mark in the nation. The Longhorns have shown that it can take the top off of opposing defenses, but a big issue in this one will be that the team’s run game continues to be shaky. 

Ohio State is top five in the country in EPA/Rush, shutting down nearly every run game on its schedule in the run-first Big Ten, and Texas averaged fewer than three yards per carry against Arizona State. A lot of pressure will fall on Ewers to find answers against a Buckeyes secondary that has been nails against the pass, eighth in coverage grading according to Pro Football Focus. 

I like Ohio State in this one due to its ability to show this high of a ceiling while it's fair to question if Texas can match it. However, we are paying quite the premium to bet Ohio State against arguably the most talented roster left in the field that isn’t the Buckeyes. 

Instead, I’ll target the Ohio State team total over with its ability to push the ball down the field and find explosives as well as possibly turn over Ewers to create short-field opportunities. Ewers has more turnover-worthy plays (19) than big-time throws (17).

PICK: Ohio State Team Total 29.5

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