Best College Football Bets for Week 6: Trust Ohio State at Home vs. Iowa

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) makes a pass against the Michigan State Spartans in the first half at Spartan Stadium on Saturday. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

College football enters the middle of the season and there are plenty of high leverage games across the weekend slate.

While we wait to see if Missouri is College Football Playoff contenders, Ohio State looks to enter its meaty part of the schedule with a resounding win against Iowa. Can the Hawkeyes improving offense hold up against the co-favorite to win the National Championship in Ohio State?

We have best bets for three games on Saturday's Week 6 card below!

Best College Football Bets for Week 6

Missouri vs. Texas A&M UNDER 48
Ohio State -19.5 vs. Iowa
UCF vs. Florida OVER 61.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

It’s tough to get a gauge on exactly what the 2024 Missouri Tigers are.

The team returned the likes of quarterback Brady Cook and wide receiver Luther Burden, but hasn’t shown all that much just yet. The team got taken to overtime against Vanderbilt at home and needed to pick it up in the second half to win against Boston College, failing to cover in both games.

However, with a BYE week to prepare for a hostile advantage against Texas A&M at Kyle Field, who is coming off a fifth straight game on a neutral field and a second SEC game against Arkansas. What is the state of this Texas A&M team, who haven’t announced a starting quarterback just yet?

The Tigers defense hasn't faced a team with the size and physicality of Texas A&M just yet, but the Aggies appear to be destined to be pedestrian all season. Overall, the team is 66th in EPA/Play despite facing several soft defenses, including Florida’s poor defense.

If this number hit a field goal, I’d be inclined to take the points with Missouri, who are the better team with a serious rest advantage, but my preference currently is to take the under as the Aggies defense is a proven unit that can keep down a possibly non-explosive Tigers offense while Texas A&M would prefer to play this game in the low 20’s.

PICK: UNDER 48

Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

I struggle to see Iowa moving the ball effectively to create scoring chances against Ohio State on the road.

The Hawkeyes have an elite ground game this season, but are a one-dimensional outfit. The team isn’t going to be able to get to third and manageable against a Buckeyes defense that is second in early down EPA/Play this season.

The Hawkeyes will be forced to throw, which will likely fail to lead to results with the team 98th in EPA/Pass and 127th in explosive pass rate.

Iowa’s defense is among the best in the country, but the Buckeyes are in a different class and should be able to create explosives and pounce on strong field position against the Hawkeyes to win a low scoring game by margin.

The Buckeyes may look to get out of this game quickly with an eye to the big game against Oregon next week, but they are simply too explosive to keep out of the end zone and push this game out of reach.

PICK: Ohio State -19.5

UCF vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

There’s plenty of avenues to points for both teams.

The Knights defense has shown that it can’t slow down capable passing games, 124th in EPA/Play on defense, while the Gators defense is outside the top 100 in metrics like points allowed per drive (123rd) and EPA/Play (109th).

Both defenses are out of sorts, which should set up nicely for a pair of explosive offenses, each top 40 in the country in EPA/Play.

The Knights thrive on its three-headed monster in the running game with Harvey, quarterback K.J. Jefferson and fellow running back Peny Boone, sixth in the country in yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Mertz and the Gators offense, and possibly Lagway for a few drives, should be able to put together scoring drives against the Knights, who only have three sacks on the season. With a BYE to prepare, I expect a strong passing game from Florida at home.

PICK: OVER 61.5

Best College Football Bets for Week 6

Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

UCF vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

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