Best College Football Prop Bets for Florida State vs. Duke in Week 8

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 21, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Lawrance Toafili (9) runs the ball during the first half against the California Golden Bears at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Duke and Florida State square off in ACC action on Friday night to start the Week 8 weekend of college football.

It's been a disaterous season for Florida State, but the team will resume play out of its BYE week with an emerging running back looking to pace the new-look offense in Lawrance Toafili. Is Toafili being underrated in the player prop market?

Let's discuss our two favorite player props for Friday's night's matchup.

Best College Football Prop Bets for Florida State vs. Duke 

• Lawrance Toafili OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards
• Maalik Murphy UNDER 213.5 Passing Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Lawrance Toafili OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards

Toafili continues to emerge as the top back in this Florida State offense, and I’ll bank on steady production from him after he couldn’t find much traction against the elite Clemson defense prior to the Seminoles BYE week. 

#FSU RB Snap Counts Against Clemson:

Lawrance Toafili - 50
Kam Davis - 9
Samuel Singleton Jr. - 5
Micahi Danzy - 4 #Noles

— Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG) October 6, 2024

The Seminoles have plenty of issues on offense, but this Duke defense is overrated after an incredibly easy slate of games to start the season. While the defensive metrics look great for Manny Diaz’s bunch, the rush defense is vulnerable, outside the top 50 in yards per carry allowed and 101st in explosive rush rate. 

Toafili cleared this number in the two games prior against SMU and Cal on 15-plus carries, and this number is far too low given the likely volume. 

Maalik Murphy UNDER 213.5 Passing Yards

This is about an average output for Murphy, who is averaging 238 yards passing this season, but a lot of that is propped up by easy opponents. 

Against three Power Four teams, Murphy is averaging 219 passing yards and needed overtime to continue racking up yards against Northwestern, the only time he went over the listed total. 

Florida State’s pass rush is still above average despite the team’s struggles this season and the Duke offense is far from explosive, ranking 104th in EPA/Play. 

I believe the Noles will try to shorten this game and this one is played between the 40’s for each team with a low total. 

Out of a BYE week, I’ll side with FSU to have a gameplan to take away the pass and for Murphy to struggle, going under this near-median mark. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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