Best College Football Prop Bets for Indiana vs. Notre Dame in College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | Dec 19, 2024

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (13) throws the ball during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff first round begins on Friday night when Indiana takes on Notre Dame in South Bend. 

In-state foes will do battle, but how will each team fare against stiff defensive lines? Both teams prefer to keep the ball on the ground, but the player prop market is flush with opportunities to bet on each team’s ability to pass in this one, namely Riley Leonard’s passing yards prop. 

Here’s our betting preview for Indiana vs. Notre Dame from a player prop perspective.

Best College Football Prop Bets for Indiana vs. Notre Dame 

• Riley Leonard OVER 181.5 Passing Yards
• Justice Ellison UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards
• Jordan Faison UNDER 24.5 Receiving Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Riley Leonard OVER 181.5 Passing Yards

The Notre Dame offense revolves around its potent ground game, but I believe that the team will need to take to the air against this elite Indiana defensive line. 

Against a College Football Playoff opponent, IU proved the validity of its defensive line but shutting down the Ohio State ground game as the Buckeyes took to the air and found much more success against an outsized secondary. 

While OSU has one of the most talented pass-catching groups in the country, I believe that Notre Dame can find just enough success through the air for Leonard to clear his pedestrian passing mark. 

In five games that Leonard has passed the ball more than 25 times, he has cleared this total in three of them. The Irish have typically been able to dictate the terms at the line of scrimmage, but the Hoosiers will be the best defensive line the team has faced to date, top five in EPA/Rush and tops in defensive line yards. 

With potentially more passes dialed up for Leonard, I’ll take him to go over his passing yards number. 

Justice Ellison UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards

The Hoosiers have a two-headed monster at running back between Ellison and Ty’Son Lawton, yet Ellison has a slightly higher rushing yard total than Lawton (47.5). 

With that in mind, I’m going to go under as it's unclear what the split will be between the two, Ellison had 148 carries and Lawton had 131. With unknown volume, against an elite defensive line, I believe Ellison is being overvalued. 

The Notre Dame defensive line is its strength and Indiana may be forced to take to the air to combat the Irish. The ND defensive line ranks 35th in yards per carry allowed and 11th in explosive rush defense. 

Jordan Faison UNDER 24.5 Receiving Yards

The Notre Dame pass-catching group is a tricky nut to crack, but I’ll fade Faison against Indiana’s predominantly zone coverage. 

Faison is a rotational piece in the ND passing game, to begin with, and his target share drops from 23% against man coverage to 18% when he faces zone. Overall, he sees his production drop with a pedestrian 1.5 yards per route run and about 12 yards per reception. 

The wide receiver has not been a high-usage player to begin with, garnering more than four targets just twice this season and more than two catches just once. Against Indiana, I believe we see Leonard look elsewhere down the field against the Hoosiers' zone defense. 

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