Best College Football Prop Bets for SMU vs. Penn State in College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | 7 Hours Ago

Dec 7, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs running back Brashard Smith (1) runs during the second quarter against the Clemson Tigers in the 2024 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

SMU and Penn State meet in Happy Valley on Saturday afternoon in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

I believe we are in for more passing than the player prop market is indicating, and you will find two over bets on receiving yards for the Penn State vs. SMU matchup. Further, the development of backup quarterback Beau Pribula hitting the transfer portal has shaken up the Nittany Lions offense, how will his status change the Penn State offense?

Keep riding to find out!

Best College Football Prop Bets for SMU vs. Penn State

Harrison Wallace OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
Brashard Smith OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards
Drew Allar UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Harrison Wallace OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards

This number is incredibly low, possibly due to weather, but I’m happy to go over given the weakness of the SMU defense is in the secondary.

While Penn State’s pass-catching group has been a bit underwhelming overall in terms of wide receiver, Wallace has been the most consistent player of the bunch. He has cleared this number in all but two games and every game since Week 3.

Wallace has at least four targets in nine of 12 games this season and has been the team’s No. 1 wide receiver target all season.

The SMU defense is top five in EPA/Rush, so we may see the Penn State offense take to the air a bit more than usual despite potentially winter conditions in the mix on Saturday afternoon.

With that in mind, I’m going with an incredibly depressed number on Wallace.

Brashard Smith OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards

I like the SMU running back to show out as a pass catcher against Penn State in this first-round matchup.

I don’t envision a positive game script for the Mustangs, and the team will not be able to run into the teeth of the Nittany Lions defense that is top 15 in defensive line yards and yards per carry.

With that in mind, and a good pass rush from Penn State getting pressure on Jennings, I expect the ‘Stangs to work Smith into the passing game.

He had six catches for 34 yards against Clemson, and Smith has been a factor as a pass catcher all season, catching 35 passes for 303 yards. Overall, he has gone over this number in five games this season and more than 20 yards in eight games.

Given that SMU will be likely behind this one, I think we see the game script skew toward more passes and check-downs to Smith against an elite defense.

Drew Allar UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yards

Allar ran the ball five times for 54 yards against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, but that’s more of an outlier than the norm.

The junior quarterback has gone over this number seven of 12 games this season, but there’s more context needed for this specific bet.

The Nittany Lions lost backup quarterback Beau Pribula for the postseason, who entered the transfer portal. Pribula was used quite a bit during the season in run-first packages. While conventional wisdom would follow that Allar will now be used as a runner more, I believe that the team will skew towards conservative with its quarterback, who has dealt with injuries during the season, in hopes of gearing up for a CFP run.

PSU will face an elite SMU rush defense that is top five in EPA/Rush, so Allar may not get many opportunities to use his legs effectively anyway, and with more concern around the depth of the position, I believe we see him be more of a pocket passer and stay under this total.

Best College Football Prop Bets for SMU vs. Penn State

Harrison Wallace OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards

Brashard Smith OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards

Drew Allar UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yards

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