Best College Football Prop Bets for Tennessee vs. Ohio State in College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | 6 Hours Ago

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) throws a pass during the first half of Saturday’s NCAA Division I football game against the Michigan Wolverines. / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee and Ohio State meet to close out the first round of the College Football Playoff.

The Vols will head to Columbus in a battle of two elite defensive lines with the winner advancing to the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 seed Oregon. With an eye on the trenches, can we trust either run game?

Here are our best player props for Dylan Sampson, TreVeyon Henerson, and Will Howard in the CFP first-round matchup between Tennessee vs. Ohio State.

Best College Football Prop Bets for Tennessee vs. Ohio State

Dylan Sampson UNDER 92.5 Rushing Yards
TreVeyon Henderson UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards
Will Howard OVER 234.5 Passing Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Dylan Sampson UNDER 92.5 Rushing Yards

This is a lofty mark for the lead back to get to for the Vols offense.

While he has cleared 92 yards in all but two games this season, I’ll go under as this will be likely the best rush defense that he has seen this season in Ohio State, which is fifth in EPA/Rush and yards per carry allowed at less than three yards per touch.

Sampson will likely get plenty of volume in this game as Tennessee looks to play the field position battle, but I envision too many stalled rushes at the line of scrimmage against this Buckeyes defensive front that is top 25 explosive rush defense and is ranked top five in rush defense, per Pro Football Focus.

Sampson is among the best running backs in the country, and this is a scary one to go under on, but the matchup dictates the play and that’s for the under.

TreVeyon Henderson UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Henderson is in a time share with Quinshon Judkins, but factors in way more in the passing game. Given that the Vols defensive line can shut down even the best running games, I believe that Henderson plays more of a role as a pass catcher than a rusher.

While he has gone over this number in three of the last four, some of that is due to his ability to rip explosive runs. For example, against Indiana’s elite defensive line, Henderson had eight carries for 29 yards before ripping off a 39-yard carry to end the game.

The Vols defense is among the best in the country at stopping the run, top 10 in defensive line yards and yards per carry. With a possible limited workload at about 12 carries, Henderson will need to hit a big gain to clear this total, but I believe that the Buckeyes skew more towards the passing game with three offensive linemen injured and the team’s struggles against a similarly talented defensive line in Michigan in the regular season finale.

I’ll go under on Henderson as he sees more work in the passing game.

Will Howard OVER 234.5 Passing Yards

After failing to establish the run against Michigan, will Ohio State learn from its mistakes?

The wind is in the forecast for the game in Columbus on Saturday evening, but Howard has proven capable of clearing this number against even the best defenses in the country.

Howard has gone over this total in half of his games this season, and only once in three games against ranked opponents, but not due to lack of efficiency. The Buckeyes' passing game ranks top four in EPA/Pass and second in success rate, but with the team’s propensity to lean on the ground game, it has had more instances than expected that Howard has gone under this pedestrian total.

After getting stuffed against Michigan, and a Tennessee defense that poses a similar threat in the trenches against a banged-up run-blocking unit, I believe the Buckeyes look to put speed in space and pass the ball to succeed with throws underneath.

With that in mind, I’ll go over Howard’s passing yard mark given that this number is overlooking the possibility that Ohio State shifts more toward a passing game script.

Best College Football Prop Bets for Tennessee vs. Ohio State

Dylan Sampson UNDER 92.5 Rushing Yards

TreVeyon Henderson UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Will Howard OVER 234.5 Passing Yards

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