Best College Football Prop Bets for Notre Dame vs. Penn State in College Football Playoff Semifinals

Reed Wallach | 20 Hours Ago

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) hands the ball to Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) during the first quarter at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Penn State and Notre Dame will play for the right to play in the National Championship Game on Thursday night with plenty of intrigue on how each team will attack the other. 

The key in this one is the state of the Notre Dame rushing attack with a banged up Jeremiyah Love and the emergence of Riley Leonard’s legs in the postseason. Further, Penn State’s Harrison Wallce continues to be undervalued in the receiving yards market. 

Get three player prop breakdowns below! 

Best College Football Prop Bets for Notre Dame vs. Penn State

• Jeremiyah Love UNDER 47.5 Rushing Yards
• Harrison Wallace OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
• Riley Leonard OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Jeremiyah Love UNDER 47.5 Rushing Yards

Love re-aggravated a knee injury that has been lingering since the regular season finale against USC. While he is expected to play, the expectation is that he’ll be limited against the vaunted Penn State defense. 

The full season numbers are gaudy for Love, who is averaging north of seven yards per carry, but he was limited to only six carries against Georgia for 19 yards. Prior to that game, Love had 108 yards against Indiana, however 98 of them came on one run while the other seven totaled 10 yards. 

Love is banged up, and this is a play against his overall usage against an elite Penn State rush defense that is 13th in EPA/Rush and 11th in yards per carry. 

Harrison Wallace OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards

Wallace came up just short of his player prop in the Fiesta Bowl, catching three of four targets for 37 yards, but his receiving yard total is up two yards in this one. 

Despite going under, I’m going back to the well with the Nittany Lions’ top wide receiver option. 

Wallace had gone over this number in every game dating back to Week 6 before the Fiesta Bowl and with Notre Dame’s strength at safety that can potentially limit tight end Tyler Warren, Drew Allar may focus on Wallace more. 

Further, this matchup suits Wallace nicely, who is the best wide receiver against man coverage, which is a foundation of Al Golden’s defense with Notre Dame. Wallace has caught 12 of 13 targets against man coverage, the second most on the team with a gaudy 3.11 yard per route run, per Pro Football Focus. 

Look for Wallace to factor into the pass game a ton in this one. 

Riley Leonard OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards

This number is up a handful of yards from the Sugar Bowl, which makes sense given that the quarterback ran for 80 yards in the victory. 

In the big games, it’s clear that Notre Dame is going to force the issue with Leonard as a rusher. In the two postseason games, Leonard has 25 carries for 110 yards and in the Sugar Bowl he had 14 carries to 24 pass attempts. 

With Love being banged up, and the Notre Dame passing game limited, I believe we see Leonard force the issue on the ground. 

Yes, the Penn State defensive line is elite against the run, but the team hasn’t faced a bulky quarterback like Leonard that has gone over this number in four of six games against ranked foes (at the time). 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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