Best College Football Prop Bets for USC vs. UCLA in Week 13

Reed Wallach | 5 Hours Ago

Nov 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Cross-town rivals meet in Week 13 as USC and UCLA face off.

For both teams, its been a trying season, but each are trying to close out the season in form with a win against the other. For UCLA, the team has played its best ball down the stretch while USC has turned to backup quarterback Jayden Maiava in a dress rehearsal to potentially win the QB1 job for next season.

I’m targeting Maiava’s passing yard prop as one of my favorites in this Big Ten clash in addition to two others.

Best Player Props for USC vs. UCLA in Week 13

Jayden Maiava OVER 247.5 Passing Yards
Kwazi Gilmer OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards
TJ Harden OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jayden Maiava OVER 247.5 Passing Yards

Maiava had little issue stepping in for Miller Moss last week in the Trojans win against Nebraska, passing for 259 yards while completing 71% of his passes with four total touchdowns.

To beat UCLA, the passing game is key. The Bruins are a far better defense against the run than the pass, top 46th in EPA/Rush and 97th in EPA/Pass.

The Trojans continue to have an embarrassment of riches in the passing game, and the drop-off from Maiava to Miller seems to be non-existent.

Further, UCLA hasn’t played an elite passing game for quite some time. Against those, the Bruins pass defense has struggled quite a bit. Against LSU, Garrett Nussmeier completed 32-of-44 passes for 352 yards. Against Indiana, Kurtis Rourke passed for 307 yards on 25-of-33 passes. Lastly, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel passed for 272 yards on 31-of-41 passes.

Maiava may not be as elite or household, but he can get over this number.

Kwazi Gilmer OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards

Gilmer is off a quiet outing against Washington, but it wasn’t for lack of volume.

The receiver had eight targets, a season higher, but only had three catches and eight yards, bringing down his recent production. Prior to that as UCLA began to see an uptick in play, three straight wins, Glimer posted receiving totals of 21, 88, and 32, so this is a fairly median outcome for him.

The USC defense is sturdy against the pass, but as the Bruins continue to let Garbers chuck the ball around the field, at least 35 passes in four of the last five games, I’ll side with Glimer’s over.

TJ Harden OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Harden went under his rushing yard prop last week, but the volume continues to be there for the Bruins back. While he is in a committee, that’s three straight games with double digit carries.

If Harden is going to get that kind of volume against a USC rush defense that is ranked 98th in the country according to Pro Football Focus, I’ll bank on a handful of impressive rushes from him to get over this total. Further, USC’s inability to get in the backfield, outside the top 100 in tackles for loss, should mean Harden is constantly getting yardage.

Best Player Props for USC vs. UCLA in Week 13

Jayden Maiava OVER 247.5 Passing Yards

Kwazi Gilmer OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards

TJ Harden OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards

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