Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 12: Back Cincinnati to Hand Iowa State Stunning Third Loss

Reed Wallach | Nov 13, 2024

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) runs down the field with the ball in the fourth quarter of a college football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and West Virginia Mountaineers, Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Mountaineers won 31-24. / Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As we head towards the end of the season, upsets remain apparent, but they can take different forms, as certain teams are trending up to end the season with other teams flaming out.

Motivation becomes a question for some teams, maybe it's bowl eligibility or finishing under a first-year head coach in style, and other teams may be looking to get to the offseason after having some of their pre and mid-season goals ended early.

With an eye on some factors outside of the x's and o's, let's try and find three live underdogs for the Week 12 card.

Best Upset Picks for College Football Week 12

UCLA (+140) vs. Washington
Cincinnati (+255) vs. Iowa State
New Mexico (+330) vs. Washington State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Washington vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

UCLA profiles as a live underdog yet again with its ability to keep this game on the ground and run on a porous Washington rush defense.

The Huskies have been bullied by the opposing running game all season long, outside the top 100 in defensive line yards and EPA/Rush. The team has been able to limit explosive plays, but not get teams off the field whatsoever, 91st in third down conversion percentage allowed.

The team will play host to a surging UCLA team that bolsters an elite rush defense that just shut down arguably the most effective running back in the country not named Ashton Jeanty in Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson to less than three yards per carry. On the season, UCLA is 13th in yards per carry allowed and top five in explosive rush defense.

Further, this is a brutal scheduling spot for the Huskies, who are making the trip back across the country after a night game on Saturday against a physical Penn State team, its second cross-country trip in three weeks. With one less day to prepare, UCLA has a leg up in that regard as well, playing last Friday out of a BYE week.

In a game with a lower than average total, I’ll take the live underdog.

PICK: UCLA (+140)

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Cincinnati was on the wrong end of two defensive scores against West Virginia at home, and I’m looking to play on the Bearcats in Ames against a spiraling Iowa State team that has dropped two in a row.

The Cyclones don’t profile as a good favorite at all with their inability to stop the run. Iowa State is outside the top 100 in yards per carry allowed and tackling, which means that the Bearcats should be able to move the ball with relative ease, 47th in yards per carry allowed.

It’s never fun fading Iowa State at home in a night game, but I believe there is more to this slide than just some bad variance for Iowa State, and this feels like a massive downgrade for the Bearcats after some poor variance against West Virginia.

PICK: Cincinnati (+255)

Washington State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

According to Pro Football Focus, Washington State is the worst tackling team in the country, and I don’t believe the Cougars can continue to perform this way on defense and cover double-digit spreads.

The team will travel to Albuquerque to face New Mexico, which is a top-flight offense, ranking 24th in EPA/Play and sixth in yards per play. Washington State hasn’t faced too many offenses with this firepower, with only two inside the top 50 in Boise State and San Jose State in which the team allowed 45 and 52 points, respectively.

The team continues to be over-inflated in the market due to gaudy final scores but look at last week. With a 21-point win against Utah State looking good on the surface, the Lobos only out-gained Utah State by 87 yards. The game was far closer and I expect eventually this team will get caught before the end of the season. Why not on Saturday?

It’s a big number, and I can’t trust Washington State to blow out a capable offense like the Lobos in what should be an entertaining, and back-and-forth affair.

PICK: New Mexico (+330)

Best Upset Picks for College Football Week 12

Washington vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Washington State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

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