Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 5 (Wazzu a Live Underdog vs. Boise State with CFP Implications)

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 7, 2024; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington State Cougars quarterback John Mateer (10) throws a pass against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images / James Snook-Imagn Images

College football is always full of upsets, both big schools and smalls.

Saturday will prove to be no different with a ton of consequential matchups in the Group of Five ranks and amongst the Power Four heavyweights. Let's hit our three favorite upset picks, including the exciting late-night matchup between Boise State and Washington State.

Best Upset Picks for College Football Week 5

Louisville (+180) vs. Notre Dame
Louisiana-Monroe (+205) vs. Troy
Washington State (+225) vs. Boise State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Sure, Notre Dame is searching for revenge at the hands of Louisville, who blew out the Irish last season.

However, I'm not sure I can trust this Irish offensive line that is down several starters for the season and Riley Leonard continues to battle an injury to his non-throwing shoulder.

Louisville has the explosive capability with wide receiver Alabama transfer Ja'Corey Brooks and potentially the return of South Alabama import Caullin Lacy from a broken collarbone to put pressure on this ND offense that is 88th in EPA/Pass so far this season.

The Irish are finishing a grueling stretch of its schedule, and I'm not sure I can trust this team to win with margin in a potentially low-scoring affair.

Further, Jeff Brohm has thrived in the role as an underdog. Brohm is 20-13-1 against the spread (ATS) as a head coach in the role of an underdog since landing at Purdue, and that moniker has carried over to Louisville, including beating ND last season. Get this, in that sample, Brohm-led teams are 15-19 straight up as an underdog.

PICK: Louisville (+180)

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Troy Prediction and Pick

I'm not sure the difference between these two teams and I'm willing to take a stab at the Warhawks as big underdogs to win at Troy.

The Trojans are nothing like the two-time Sun Belt Champions under new coach Gerad Parker, who lost at home to Nevada as a big favorite and narrowly covered against FCS Florida A&M last week.

ULM is far from a world-beater, but the team does look improved under first-year head coach Bryan Vincent, who has the Warhawks running the ball at an effective level and shortening the game.

The Warhawks are running the ball at a top-15 rate and playing at a bottom 10 tempo, perfect for a big underdog. Troy will also play slow, and with limited possessions, I'll side with the team with a big plus sign.

It also helps that Troy is bottom 10 in rush defense grading, per Pro Football Focus, and I'm not sure we know the true difference between the two teams.

PICK: Louisiana-Monroe (+205)

Washington State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

PICK: Washington State (+225)

There will likely be fireworks in this game with a high total and two teams that can move the ball explosively on offense and also are struggling to get stops on the other side of the ball.

Each team has an offense that ranks top 20 in EPA/Play, but a defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Play. The Broncos defense has been particularly poor to start the season, 125th in EPA/Play.

It’s tough to trust the Broncos to completely shut down this Washington State offense that can spread out the secondary and use Mateer both as a rusher and a passer. While the Broncos bolster a rest advantage, Washington State did get an extra day to prepare for this one after playing on Friday night.

While the Cougs had to rally to win that one, the team had a post-game win expectancy at nearly 70% and out-gained San Jose State by nearly 200 yards in the overtime victory.

Boise State’s offense can run the ball fairly easily against the Cougs' defense that is outside the top 100 in yards per carry allowed, which could lead to an over bet, but I believe that getting over a touchdown with this Wazzu team is the best play.

Boise State hasn’t proven it can shut down an FBS-level offense, allowing 37 points to Oregon and 45 to Georgia Southern. This will be a different environment on the ‘Smurf Turf,’ but I will trust the Cougars to do their part on offense and have a shot to win this one.

Best Upset Picks for College Football Week 5

Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Troy Prediction and Pick

Washington State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

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