Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 9: Texas Tech Continues Chaotic Big 12 Season

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Oct 19, 2024; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Tahj Brooks (28) runs the ball against Baylor Bears safety Corey Gordon Jr. (4) in the second half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images / Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

The Big 12 has been the most chaotic conference in a season full of crazy developments, and Week 9 should be no different.

This season, underdogs of four or more points are 7-10 straight up in Big 12 play, a sign that teams are consistently underrated and some of the favorites are being overrated. Can we see another underdog outperform expectations on Saturday when Texas Tech takes on TCU?

We have you set with some live conference underdogs in Week 9!

Best Upset Picks for College Football Week 9

• Syracuse (+168) vs. Pittsburgh
• Mississippi State (+184) vs. Arkansas
• Texas Tech (+185) vs. TCU

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick

While this game should be full of points, I don’t believe the difference between these teams is as great as the point spread indicates. 

The Orange have been frisky as an underdog this season, winning both games outright, and are being undervalued against a Pitt defense that is outside the top in EPA/Pass this season. 

That should set up nicely for Kyle McCord and the Syracuse offense that is 32nd in EPA/Play. 

The Panthers are undefeated, but its four wins against Power Four competition have been by a combined 17 points. 

The Orange are live on Thursday night. 

PICK: Syracuse (+168)

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

While Arkansas has been better than expectations this season, the team is limping into this one. 

Quarterback Taylen Green didn’t look healthy out of the BYE week with a leg injury and now running back Ja’Quinden Jackson is trending towards sitting out this road trip to Starkville. 

The Bulldogs may have a ghastly 1-6 record, but the team has been outperforming oddsmakers expectations since Michael Van Buren Jr. took over under center for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has covered in three straight games as an underdog against Texas, Georgia, and Texas A&M. 

Arkansas has been thriving as an underdog this season, upsetting Tennessee for one, but is in the rare spot as an SEC favorite. I’ll grab the points in what could be an upset on Saturday afternoon with Jeff Lebby looking to score his first league win. 

PICK: Mississippi State (+184)

Texas Tech vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

It’s another edition of buy low and sell high on middling Big 12 teams!

There simply isn’t much separating these two teams, and just a week ago TCU was priced as a small underdog against a sputtering Utah team and Texas Tech was laying over a field goal against Baylor. After a TCU upset and a disheartening Texas Tech loss, we are getting a swift market reaction. 

However, TCU hasn’t covered as a favorite yet this season against Power Four competition, and the team’s inability to stop the run (111th EPA/Rush) will keep the Red Raiders within the number in what should be a back-and-forth affair. 

PICK: TCU (+185)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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