Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 4: Can Georgia Tech Pull Another Stunner at Louisville?

Breaking down the best upset picks for Week 4 of the college football season.

Aug 24, 2024; Dublin, IRL; Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King of runs with the ball against Florida State at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Maher/INPHO via Imagn Images / Tom Maher/INPHO via Imagn Images

College football season continues to ramp up and now we have more and more conference foes starting play against one another.

One game to keep an eye on is Georgia Tech's rip to Louisville on Saturday afternoon. The Yellow Jackets have made a habit under head coach Brent Key to be a great bet as underdogs, nearly upsetting Louisville just one year ago. Can this year be the year that GT gets one over on the Cardinals?

Here's our favorite upset picks for Saturday's Week 4 slate.

Best College Football Upset Picks

• Georgia Tech (+270) vs. Louisville 
• East Carolina (+188) vs. Liberty
• BYU (+188) vs. Kansas State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

I'll take a shot on the underdog Yellow Jackets, who have been no strangers to upsets this season, taking down Florida State on a neutral site in Week 0.

While that FSU win may not age as well, I'm not sure what to make of Louisville, who beat up on FCS opponent Austin Peay and G5 team Jacksonville State ahead of an early bye week. Now, the team faces a far more tested team in Georgia Tech, who has proven it can play up to competition under head coach Brent Key.

The Yellow Jackets are 11-3 in a year-plus under Key as an underdog against the spread and a remarkable 8-5 straight up as an underdog.

Last season, Louisville was laying seven points on a neutral against Georgia Tech and held off the Yellow Jackets 39-34. To me, Louisville is a worse version this season and is still unproven. There is a ton of volatility to take the big underdog.

Pick: Georgia Tech (+270)

East Carolina vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

East Carolina is a volatile bunch. 

The team starts quarterback Jake Garcia in a new-look offense that is head up by former Ole Miss co-OC John David Baker who has the Pirates playing at a fast tempo.

However, Garcia leads the country in interceptions with eight interceptions. The former Miami and Missouri quarterback has five big time throws to 10 turnover worthy plays in three games, a staggering amount and makes for a chaotic viewing experience. 

What this says to me is that this team can play up and down at times, but do have an elite defense that can keep the team in games. 

The team faces Liberty, the Conference USA favorite on Saturday, who has been far worse than expectations this season, 0-3 against the spread this season. 

The Flames haven’t faced a quality team on either side of the ball yet and are struggling to get margin on teams. 

ECU may make some boneheaded mistakes during the game, but the team has been competitive all season, especially on defense with a unit that is 23rd in EPA/Play. 

I like the Pirates to avenge its loss to Appalachian State last week by two and get an upset win on the road. 

PICK: East Carolina (+188)

BYU vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick

K-State was gashed by Tulane in Week 2 and this is a BYU team that has a lot of similarities to the Green Wave at quarterback with both BYU’s Retzlaff and Tulane’s Mensah taking shots down the field and stretching the secondary. 

With the threat of the deep pass, with stud wide receiver Chase Roberts catching passes, BYU will be able to test the Wildcats secondary. 

Meanwhile, BYU has shown a sturdy front seven that can get in the backfield, racking up 19 tackles for loss in three games. I’m curious if the Cougars can put K-State in obvious passing situations and turn Johnson into a passer out of necessity. 

Johnson has made four big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season, per Pro Football Focus, and has completed 50% of his throws of more than 10 yards, making up 33% of his passes. 

Johnson isn’t trustworthy yet to lay points on the road, grab the Cougars as underdogs. 

Pick: BYU (+188)

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