Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Bobby Witt Jr. Pushes MVP Case)

MLB home run player props and best bets for Tuesday's June 18, including MVP contender Bobby Witt Jr.

Jun 7, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) hits a triple during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

With every team in action on Tuesday, let's focus on which stars are set to go yard.

In the discussion for an AL MVP, Bobby Witt Jr. will look to keep a hot June going with a home run against a lowly Athletics pitching staff in favorable conditions, highligting my card on Tuesday with two other sluggers in the mix as well.

Find out how I'm attacking home run props on Tuesday's slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, June 18th

• Adley Rutschman (+520)
• Julio Rodriguez (+420)
• Bobby Witt Jr. (+430)

Adley Rutschman

Rutchsman is dangerous against lefty pitchers, which he is in line to face on Tuesday when the Yankees send out Nestor Cortes. 

Rutchsman is hitting .420 with a .693 slugging percentage against southpaws, crushing six home runs in 93 plate appearances. 

In the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium, Rutschman can take advantage of Cortes’ concerning hard-hit metrics, 17th percentile in the big leagues according to MLB Statcast, and high fly ball rate, fourth percentile in groundball rate. 

Rutschman is worth a bet at north of +500. 

Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez only has seven home runs on the year, but is still hitting the ball just fine. He is in the 91st percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage and is in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity. 

We are starting to see his numbers trend upwards, hitting .281 in June with a slugging percentage that is a monthly high of .456. He already has tied May for the most home runs in a month with three in June and I fancy his chances of going yard on Tuesday against Triston McKenzie. 

The Guardians right hander is in for harsh regression as the season continues, posting an xERA of 4.81 that far outpaces his 4.10 ERA. Further, the wind is set to blow out of Progressive Field at nearly six miles per hour, helping J-Rod’s hard contact to push over the fence. 

Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt Jr's numbers are fantastic this season, and they should be even better. With 11 home runs and a slugging percentage of .551, Witt's xSLG is .616. He is one of the best hitters in the bigs and should have plenty of more home runs already.

Tuesday is a great set up for him, facing an Athletics pitchign staff that is bottom five in ERA and starting lefty Hogan Harris. The utility arm has allowed three home runs to right handers in five appearances this season, making for a tough matchup against the likes of Witt Jr, who will also have the benefit of more than nine miles per hour of winds pushing the ball out.

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