Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Buy Low on Aaron Judge, Willy Adames on Thursday)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, Sept. 12.

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

It’s hard to have a much better day betting home run props than we did on Wednesday, as yours truly correctly predicted both Cody Bellinger (+500) and Anthony Santander (+425) to go yard. 

If you simply bet one unit on both of those players last night, you’d be up 9.25 units this morning. Not too bad. 

Thursday brings a new day, new matchups and plenty of players to choose from to hit a home run, but I’ve narrowed down my picks for a much shorter slate with several teams traveling. 

Can we stay hot in these picks?

Here’s a pair of home run props to consider for Sept. 12. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+255)
• Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+255)

AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge has not hit a home run in his last 14 games – a shocking drought for the New York Yankees slugger. 

Judge has 51 homers on the season while posting an insane .320/.453/.688 slash line. He could be a buy low candidate now that oddsmakers have moved him back over +200 – he’s at +255 – to homer against a Boston Red Sox team that has struggled in the second half.

Boston has one of the worst bullpens in baseball, allowing the fourth most homers and posting the fifth worst ERA in the league in 2024. That’s important since starter Cooper Criswell (4.11 ERA) has cleared five innings in just two starts this season. 

In 2024, Judge is hitting .306 with 11 hits, three homers and nine runs batted in across nine games against Boston. He’s worth a bet to get back on track in the homer department at a favorable number – for his standards – on Thursday. 

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+600)

I absolutely love Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames in the home run market on Thursday, as he’s set at +600 against San Francisco Giants righty Hayden Birdsong. 

Birdsong (5.19 ERA) has allowed 10 homers in 12 outings this season, and Adames went 1-for-2 against him in a matchup earlier this season.

In 2024, Adames has reverse splits, crushing right-handed pitching despite hitting from that side of the plate. Against righties, Adames has a slash line of .274/.341/.514 with 26 of his 30 home runs.

It’s shocking how much better he is against right-handed pitching (he’s hitting just .186 against lefties), and I think that makes him undervalued in this matchup. 

The Giants’ bullpen is also gettable, allowing 65 homers so far in 2024. At +600, Adames is certainly worth a dart throw on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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