Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Gunnar Henderson Breaks Out of Slump on Tuesday)

Reed Wallach | Jul 30, 2024

Jul 19, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) hits a single during the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Gunnar Henderson has proven he is human.

One of the best hitters in baseball, Henderson hasn't hit a home run since the All-Star break, but this article is for home run prop bets, and Tuesday sets up nicely for Henderson to break out of his slump.

Here's our best home run prop bets for the July 30 MLB slate.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

• Gunnar Henderson (+450)
• Alex Bregman (+460)
• Tyler Fitzgerald (+630)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson has fallen off the pace in the AL MVP race (who hasn’t with what Aaron Judge is doing), hitting only .250 since the All-Star break without a home run. 

However, Henderson draws a favorable matchup at home against Chris Bassitt, who is due for some regression with a 4.26 xERA paired with his ERA of a 3.78. 

Further, he crushes righties, hitting 22 of his 28 homers against those types of pitchers as well as a near .300 batting average (.298) and .600 slugging percentage (.586). 

Jose Altuve

Altuve isn’t the MVP candidate he once was, but is still among the best hitters in the game, hitting .311 on the year with 14 home runs. Overall, his slugging percentage is down relative to last year, .459 vs. .522, but he can continues to crush lefties. 

Altuve has a slugging percentage of .482 against southpaws with three home runs. He’s not known for his power, but against Bailey Falter, who has an xERA of nearly 5.00 and a hard-hit percentage in the 34th percentile, this matchup sets up well for Altuve. 

Tyler Fitzgerald

Fitzgerald is humming at the dish this season. A mid-season call up, the centerfielder has been hitting .319 with nine home runs in 128 plate appearances in 2024. 

He particularly dominates left handed pitching, which the A’s are starting on Tuesday in JP Sears. Fitzgerald is hitting .317 against lefties with a .600 slugging percentage, but is being priced as a non-starter to hit a homer. 

Arguably San Fran’s most potent bat in the lineup, I’ll back Fitzgerald, who is more than capable of crushing homers against a shaky bullpen. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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