Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Gunnar Henderson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Among Top Predictions)

Breaking down three players to consider to bet to hit a home run for the MLB action on Thursday, Aug. 29.

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. / Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

Looking for a fun way to get involved betting on Major League Baseball on Thursday?

Why not take some home run props!

With several afternoon starts on Thursday, there are players up and down the slate to consider betting on to go deep, even with a condensed number of games compared to usual. 

Let’s break down some of the best hitters to target for some juicy plus-money payouts on Thursday. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Aug. 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+500)
• Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+265)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+500)

There aren’t much better matchups than the one Baltimore Orioles All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson has on Thursday.

The O’s are taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have struggling righty Bobby Miller (1-3, 7.49 ERA) on the mound for his 10th appearance this season.

A hard-throwing righty, Miller has not been able to miss bats in 2024, ranking in the first percentile in expected ERA, second percentile in hard hit percentage and first percentile in average exit velocity against. 

That’s led to him giving up 12 home runs in just nine outings, so I wouldn't be shocked to see a player go yard against him tonight.

That’s where Henderson comes in.

The star shortstop has 33 home runs already this season, including five in the month of August. He hasn’t hit one since Aug. 18, but he could be due heading into this matchup. Plus, Henderson’s splits have been much better against righties.

So far this season, he’s hitting .289 with 25 of his home runs and a .565 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. He’s by far my favorite target to go deep tonight. 

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+265)

This prop doesn’t offer as much of a payout as Henderson’s, but Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is in a prime spot to go deep on Thursday afternoon.

The Chicago White Sox are starting Nick Nastrini (8.39 ERA) in this game, and he’s allowed six homers in six outings in 2024. 

Seager has dominated right-handed pitching 2024, hitting .291 with 23 homers and .557 slugging percentage. He’s up to 29 homers on the season and has hit three over the last two weeks while posting an impressive .311 batting average. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a frequent pick from yours truly in this column, even though he only has 27 homers this season.

The Jays righty is in a great spot to go deep on Thursday against Boston Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford, who has allowed 28 home runs in 27 appearances this season.

Vladdy Jr. has crushed Crawford in his career, going 4-for-9 with a pair of runs batted in. While he hasn’t hit a home run against the Boston starter, that could change tonight.

Over Guerrero’s last six games, he’s hitting a blistering .429 with one homer and three doubles. He’s worth a shot at +550 tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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