Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Jackson Merrill, Bobby Witt Jr. Are Elite Targets)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run for the MLB action on Thursday, Sept. 26.

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Even though Thursday’s Major League Baseball action features fewer games than the past two days, there are still several matchups to target in the home run prop market.

In fact, there are so many pitchers that I’d be willing to fade on Thursday that it was tough to narrow down these picks to just three players.

We’re eyeing some young rising stars, including All-Star Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a long ball on Thursday night. 

Here’s why I’m fading Patrick Corbin, Chris Flexen and Walker Buehler – all home-run allowing machines this season – on Sept. 26. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 26

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+320)
• Logan O’Hoppe to Hit a Home Run (+380)
• Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Kansas City Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. has 32 home runs this season, and he gets a nice matchup on Thursday with Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin. 

On the season, Corbin has allowed 24 home runs in 31 appearances, posting a 5.58 ERA in the process. Witt has hit lefties well – he has a slash line of .315/.346/.504 against them – but he hasn’t showcased as much power as he has against righties.

I’m throwing that out the window a bit in this matchup, as Corbin has been extremely prone to the long ball and Washington’s bullpen has allowed 63 homers so far in 2024. 

Logan O’Hoppe to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe has crushed right-handed pitching this season, hitting .258/.305/.428 with 16 of his 20 home runs this season.

On Thursday, he takes on Chicago White Sox starter Chris Flexen (5.15 ERA), who has allowed 24 homers in 32 outings in 2024.

The White Sox are just 4-28 when Flexen is on the mound this season, so I wouldn't be shocked to see the Angels offense have a big game. If O’Hoppe can’t get to Flexen, he may go yard against a Chicago bullpen that has allowed the second most home runs – 82 – so far this season. 

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+400)

San Diego Padres rookie sensation Jackson Merrill already has 24 homers in the 2024 season, and he’s got a nice matchup against Los Angeles Dodgers righty Walker Buehler (5.63 ERA) on Thursday.

In 15 starts this season, Buehler has allowed 16 home runs, giving up at least one long ball in 11 of those outings.

Merrill is elite against right-handed pitching, hitting .310/.342/.548 with 19 of his 24 homers this season. He’s also been hot over the last two weeks, hitting .366 overall. 

I think he’s a solid bet at 4/1 against a home-run prone pitcher like Buehler.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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