Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Randy Arozarena Stays Hot, Riley Greene Undervalued)

Breaking down the best home run picks for the MLB action on Monday, July 22.

Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) watches his two run home run against the New York Yankees. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

A few teams are wrapping up their first series back from the All-Star break on Monday while others kick off a new one, which means we can bet a 1:05 p.m. EST start between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays as well as several evening games on Monday.

What better way to start the week?

Well, one way to make it even better would be cashing a home-run prop bet, something that we did in yesterday’s Daily Dinger with Anthony Santander hitting his 27th homer of the season for the Baltimore Orioles. 

Today, I’m focusing on one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break and fading two struggling pitchers that have been prone to the long ball in recent starts. 

Let’s see if we can cash another plus-money prop to get this week started on the right foot!

Best MLB Home Run Picks for Monday, July 22

• Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run (+340)
• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run (+340)

When you’re hot, you’re hot, and Tampa Bay outfielder Randy Arozarena is red hot. 

While he hasn’t put together a great season overall, Arozarena has come out of the break on fire, hitting three homers in his last two games while going 6-for-13 overall in the first three games of his series against the Yankees.

Now, he’s in a prime spot against lefty Carlos Rodon, who has been awful since the start of June, posting a 7.20 ERA in eight starts. Opponents are hitting .295 with a .908 OPS against Rodon over that stretch, and he’s given up 10 total home runs – including at least one long ball in five consecutive outings. 

That sets up well for Arozarena, who has hit left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitching in 2024 (.908 OPS vs. .646 OPS). 

Plus, the Rays outfielder has crushed Rodon in his career, going 3-for-7 with a double, a homer and two runs batted in. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him homer for the third game in a row. 

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene has been arguably their best offensive player in 2024 – especially against right-handed pitching.

Greene has 17 homers on the season, with 13 of them coming against righties, and he’ll face a righty in Cleveland Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco on Monday night. 

Carrasco has struggled in 2024, posting a 5.02 ERA, and he’s given up 14 home runs in 17 appearances. That sets up well for Greene, who is hitting .291 with a .912 OPS against righties. 

At +500, Greene feels like a steal tonight, especially since Carrasco has allowed at least one homer in five of his last seven starts.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.