Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Royce Lewis Odds' are Appetizing)

MLB best home run prop bets for the Thursday, June 27 slate, including Royce Lewis and Gunnar Henderson.

Jun 16, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis (23) celebrates his three-run home run against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning of game two of a double header at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports / Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a condensed big league slate on Thursday, but I’m trusting some of the most reliable hitters in the sport to cash for me in the home run prop bet market. 

Royce Lewis has long odds to go deep on Thursday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. A player of his caliber should never be priced at +500 given some of his splits this season against left handed pitching.

Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson continues to chase Aaron Judge in the AL MVP conversation, and he can further his cause on Thursday with a homer. Find out why I’m backing him and Philadelphia Phillies’ third baseman Alec Bohm below. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday, June 27th

• Royce Lewis (+500)
• Gunnar Henderson (+370)
• Alec Bohm (+520)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Royce Lewis

Lewis destroys lefty pitching, hitting .400 in 20 at bats this season with two home runs. 

He’ll face Jordan Montgomery of the Diamondbacks, who has struggled this season to find his elite form, seeing his ERA spike to 5.71. 

Lewis has struggled to stay healthy, but when he plays he is a threat to go yard at any point, homering nine times in 20 games. 

While regression can set in, a player of his caliber should never be priced this long. 

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson is one of the bright young stars of the big leagues, crushing 26 home runs while hitting .288. Henderson ranks in the 96th percentile in xSLG and 98th percentile in hard-hit percentage. 

He’ll face Jon Gray of the Texas Rangers, who has some concerning underlying metrics this season that include an xERA that is more than a run higher than his ERA (3.03 vs. 4.31). Further, he has a hard-hit percentage that is in the 18th percentile and an average exit velocity in the seventh percentile. 

Henderson is live to crack his 27th dinger of the year. 

Alec Bohm

There are plenty of bats to choose from in the vaunted Phillies lineup, but I like the matchup for Alec Bohm, who has hit three home runs against southpaws this season. While not as potent against lefties than against righties, I think we are getting a break on the price relative to other Philadelphia sluggers. 

Bohm ranks in the 88th percentile in terms of xSLG and his slugging percentage sits at .500 in the month of June as he continues to swing a sweet bat. 

I’ll ride with him on Thursday. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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