Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Jake Burger on Tuesday)

Breaking down the best players to bet in MLB to hit a home run on Tuesday, Sept. 17.

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

With the Major League Baseball playoffs approaching, there are plenty of games to dive into on Tuesday – especially if you’re looking to bet in the prop market.

I’m focusing strictly on the home run market, as there are a few sluggers in favorable matchups on Sept. 17.

Betting on home run props can be tough – they’re obviously hard to predict – but the return can be rewarding, especially for one of our picks tonight at +500.

Here’s a breakdown of the three players I love to go to yard on Tuesday. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, Sept. 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+500)
• Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+350)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Miami Marlins slugger Jake Burger has 25 home runs on the season, and he has by far the best matchup in baseball tonight.

The Marlins are taking on Los Angeles Dodgers starter Bobby Miller, who has allowed 17 home runs in just 12 outings in 2024. Over his two starts this month, Miller has given up 13 earned runs and five home runs in just 9.1 innings of work. 

That sets up well for Burger, who has actually hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching in 2024, posting a slash line of .257/.318/.451 against righties. He’s also smacked 16 of his 25 homers against righties this season.

I’ll fade Miller in any way possible given how bad he’s been in 2024. 

Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+350)

When New York Mets third baseman Mark Vientos is facing a lefty, he’s a must bet in this prop.

So far in 2024, Vientos is hitting .333/.367/.614 with seven homers in just 114 at bats against left-handed pitching. Now, he takes on Washington Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker (4.24 ERA), who has given up 17 homers in 27 starts. 

Parker hasn’t been extremely prone to the long ball, but the Nationals bullpen (4.15 ERA, 59 homers allowed) isn’t exactly lights out.

Vientos should see the ball well against the lefty, and at +350 he’s too good of a value to pass up in this prop. 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Aaron Judge might be back.

After a mini slump early in September, Judge hit home runs on Friday and Sunday for the New York Yankees to lead them to wins over the Boston Red Sox. The AL MVP favorite now has 53 homers on the season, yet we can get him at nearly 3/1 odds on Tuesday night.

Judge is taking on the Seattle Mariners and Bryan Woo (2.38 ERA), which may not seem like a great matchup on paper. But, Woo has allowed seven homers over his last five starts, including at least one in each game.

That’s extremely notable since he’s only given up 11 total home runs in 19 outings in 2024. 

If the Mariners righty continues to struggle, I’d expect Judge to be the one who takes advantage tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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