Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Albies, Busch, Gurriel Against Lefties)

MLB home run prop bets for Friday, June 28. Fading lefty pitchers with these three sluggers that crush southpaws.

Jun 17, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) hits a go ahead home run against the Detroit Tigers during the eighth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

A weekend of baseball gets started on Friday night and we are eyeing the home run prop bet market to line our wallets as we hit July. 

While there are some tricky pitching matchups for certain lineups, the likes of Ozzie Albies, Michael Busch and Lourdes Gurriel are primed to go deep on Friday given not only their respective form at the dish, but also the pitching staff on the other side. 

Here’s why I’m backing these three sluggers to hit one over the fence on Friday night. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, June 28th

• Ozzie Albies (+470)
• Michael Busch (+470)
• Lourdes Gurriel (+480)

Ozzie Albies

Martin Perez of the Pirates has struggled all season, allowing a hard-hit percentage in the sixth percentile and an xERA that sits at 5.70, far higher than his actual ERA of 4.71. 

Perez will face a Braves lineup that has plenty of capable hitters, but Albies is the most dangerous on Friday. 

While not known for his power, the switch hitting second baseman has as many homers against lefties relative to righties but in about a third of the at bats and has a slugging percentage of .512. 

Michael Busch 

Busch started his rookie season on a heater, but cooled off. Now, it appears he got over the rookie wall, hitting .308 in June, but with only one home run. 

He still has an above average xSLG (60th percentile) and has hit all of his home runs against right handed pitchers, which he is facing in Colin Rea on Friday night. 

Rea has been pitching way above expectations this season, posting a 5.34 xERA against his 3.62 ERA. Further, left handed hitters have crushed him, he’s allowed three times as many homers against lefties relative to righties. 

Busch, a lefty, is a great bet to go yard. 

Lourdes Gurriel 

There’s few more dangerous than Gurriel against lefty pitchers. The left fielder is enjoying a strong year with 10 home runs while hitting .264, but he really thrives against lefties. 

Gurriel is hitting .345 against southpaws with four home runs and a slugging percentage of .540. 

Facing off against JP Sears and a bottom five Athletics bullpen, this is a perfect opportunity to play Gurriel to hit a home run. 

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