Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Gunnar Henderson, Willy Adames on Sunday)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run for the MLB action on Sunday, Aug. 18.

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. / Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re looking for a fun prop bet to place on Sunday for the Major League Baseball action, look no further than a home run prop!

While they are tough to predict, home run props also offer pretty favorable odds if you choose the right player, and there are plenty of ways to target specific pitching matchups, ballparks and more to find the best home run options. 

There are a pair of power-hitting shortstops that I’m targeting on Sunday to go yard. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 18

• Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+400)
• Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Baltimore Orioles All-Star Gunnar Henderson has tormented the Boston Red Sox in this series, picking up three hits and two home runs in three games, and he’s homered in three of his last four contests to bring him up to 32 on the season.

Henderson has a perfect matchup on Sunday against the struggling Kutter Crawford, who has a 9.75 ERA over his last five starts. 

Crawford has given up 27 home runs in 24 appearances this season, including 13 homers of his last five starts!

Henderson is a great bet to get to the struggling righty, and even if he doesn’t the Boston bullpen has been awful this season, ranking in the bottom five in the league in ERA while allowing 61 homers. 

I like getting Henderson at +400 to remain hot in this series. 

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+380)

I’m shifting to the National League for this second home run bet, as Milwaukee Brewers righty Willy Adames also has a favorable matchup on Sunday.

The Brewers are taking on Cleveland Guardians righty Ben Lively, who has given up 21 homers in 21 appearances in 2024, including six homers in his last four starts and at least one in seven of his eight starts since July 1.

Adames is a rare hitter that has reverse splits, meaning he hits right-handed pitching better than lefties this season. Against righties, Adames is hitting .271 with 20 of his 22 homers while posting an .838 OPS. 

Lively has struggled over his last three outings, raising his ERA From 3.44 to 3.71, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Adames or another Brewer takes him deep this afternoon.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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