Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Pete Alonso in Must Win Game for Mets

Reed Wallach | Sep 29, 2024

Sep 17, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) follows through on a double against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

On the final day of the regular season, there are still a handful of meaningful games on the slate but still a wide variety of home run prop bets to choose from.

In consequential games like Mets vs. Brewers, Pete Alonso has an advantageous set up to go deep while the likes of Michael Conforto can finish a strong end of the season on a high note with a home run.

Here's our favorite home run props for Sunday's final full Major League Baseball slate.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Picks for Sunday, Sept. 29

• Michael Conforto (+680)
• Lourdes Gurriel (+600)
• Pete Alonso (+420)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Michael Conforto (+680)

Conforto is finishing the season strong in San Francisco, hitting .273 in September with five home runs, tied for the most in a month this season. On the final day of the regular season, I’ll bank on him to take Cardinals prospect Michael McGreevy and/or a lackluster Cardinals bullpen deep. 

McGreevy is making his fourth appearance in the bigs and has struggled to find his punch out pitch thus far (21% K rate in an admittedly small sample size). He has a low velocity fastball, ranking in the 21st percentile, which should set up nicely for Conforto, who is amongst the top 20 percentile in xSLG. 

At long odds, and with 14 home runs against right handers this season, I’ll take Conforto. 

Lourdes Gurriel (+600)

In a must-win game for the Diamondbacks, this matchup sets up incredibly well for Gurriel, who will face soft tossing Martin Perez of the Padres. 

Gurriel destroys left handed pitching, hitting .329 with an OPS of .884. He has hit only seven home runs against southpaws, but has had about 31% of his at bats come against lefties as teams actively avoid that set up. 

In a game with a ton of stakes, my long shot pick to go deep is Gurriel. 

Pete Alonso (+420)

Another game with stakes is the Mets vs. Brewers game, and I’ll take the ‘Polar Bear’ to get a hold of one in Milwaukee. 

The Mets face right hander Colin Rea, who will start this one and try to find his form ahead of the postseason, but it’s going to be tough against a budding Mets lineup. 

Rea has an ERA of 8.44 in the month of September as his inability to avoid hard contact (28th percentile) has started to catch up to him. Enter Alonso, who is a clear power threat in the heart of the Mets order. With a barrel percentage in the 89th percentile, I’ll side with Alonso to get a hold of one. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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