Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Pete Alonso, Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets to place for Game 3 of the NLCS between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers.

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

After a travel day on Tuesday, the NLCS returns for Game 3 between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers – this time at Citi Field.

These two teams split Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles, with the Mets winning Game 2 behind a home run from Francisco Lindor. 

Over the last two days, I’ve hit bets on Juan Soto and Lindor (Monday) and Jose Ramirez (Tuesday) in the home run market, so why don’t we stay hot in Game 3 of the NLCS? 

The Mets have Luis Severino on the mound in this matchup against Dodgers righty Walker Buehler, who has been very prone to the long ball in 2024. 

Here’s a breakdown of a few players to bet on to leave the yard in Game 3. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 16

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+250)
• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+250)

Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani is 2-for-7 with three walks in this series, and he has some solid numbers against Severino in his career that make him an intriguing home run target tonight.

Ohtani obviously is a home run machine – he hit over 50 in the regular season – so it’s not a surprise that he’s set at a rather short number (+250) to go deep tonight.

In six career at bats against Severino, Ohtani is hitting 3-for-6 with one homer, one double and a pair of walks. 

Severino has pitched well in 2024, but he still gave up 23 homers in 31 regular season starts. He also allowed two homers in his last outing in the NLDS. Don’t be shocked if Ohtani gets a hold of one tonight. 

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+380)

It’s hard to find a better matchup than the one that Mets slugger Pete Alonso has on Wednesday night. 

In his career against Buehler, Alonso is hitting .357 with a 1.571 OPS, picking up four homers in 14 at bats. He only has five hits against Buehler, but 80 percent of those have left the park. 

Buehler has been awful this season, posting a 5.38 ERA during the regular season while giving up 16 homers in 16 starts. His struggles continued into the NLDS when he allowed seven hits, six runs and one homer in Game 3 against the San Diego Padres.

Maybe the Dodgers will have a quicker hook with Buehler (he threw five innings in the NLDS) this time around, but this is too good of a matchup to pass up for Alonso – even if he only faces Buehler once or twice.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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