Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso)

Breaking down two players to bet on to hit a home run in Game 1 of the NLCS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers open up the NLCS on Sunday night in what should be an extremely exciting series between two of the best teams in baseball.

New York comes into this series off a great finish to the regular season and some hot hitting the wild card round and NLDS. The Mets knocked out the Philadelphia Phillies in just four games in the NLDS, and they’ve been awaiting the Dodgers, who needed five games to beat the San Diego Padres.

New York will start Kodai Senga – who pitched just two innings in Game 1 against Philly – while the Dodgers will start Jack Flaherty in Game 1. 

There isn’t much matchup data for Senga against the Dodgers lineup, but there are still a few players that are worth considering in this matchup to hit a home run.

Let’s dive into the picks for Sunday, Oct. 13. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Oct. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+400)
• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+215)

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Pete Alonso has faced Jack Flaherty three times in his career, going 2-for-3 with a double and a strikeout.

Flaherty was knocked around a bit in Game 2 against San Diego, allowing five hits, four runs and two homers in a 10-2 loss. 

Alonso homered in two of his four games against Philly, and he hit a massive three-run homer in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Mets slugger could stay hot against a pitcher he’s seen well so far in his MLB career. 

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+215)

Senga likely isn’t going to pitch deep into this game, and he doesn’t have much history in MLB against any of these hitters.

The one player that has seen him the most? 

Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, who faced Senga in both the MLB and during his time in Japan. 

The numbers for Ohtani against Senga aren’t crazy, but the Dodgers slugger went deep in the NLDS against San Diego and hit over 50 homers during the 2024 regular season.

Even at this short price, he’s worth a shot in Game 1.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.