Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Vladimir Guerrero Continues Hot Summer)

Reed Wallach | Jul 3, 2024

Jul 2, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates in the dug out in the first inning the Houston Astros in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

As the month of July picks up, so do some of the prominent hitters in the sport. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing his best ball of the season for the Toronto Blue Jays, and I expect it to continue on Wednesday against the Houston Astros. I’m looking to cash in on the slugger in the home run prop bet market as well as two others. 

Find out who I’m backing below. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 3rd.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+390)
• Jackson Merrill (+600)
• Freddie Freeman (+460)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Guerrero is starting to heat up just in time for a second half surge from the Blue Jays. 

He is off a month of June in which he hit .318 with eight home runs, finally starting to put some substance to his strong underlying metrics. 

The first baseman is in the 94th percentile in xSLG, .534, far higher than his actual slugging percentage of .472. 

Against Ronel Blanco, who is due some serious regression over the second half of the season, posting an xERA of 3.55 vs. an actual ERA of 2.49, I like Vladdy to crack one. 

Jackson Merrill

Merrill has become the top contender to Paul Skenes for National League Rookie of the Year with a power surge in June. 

The centerfield is in the 91st percentile in terms of xSLG and dominates right handers, hitting .332 on the year. Further, he has hit eight of his 12 homers against righties. 

Enter: Jon Gray. 

Gray ranks in the 12th percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage and has struggled to slow down lefty hitters this season, allowing a WHIP of 1.78. 

I like Merrill as a longshot to go yard on Wednesday.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball. 

He is hitting .297 on the year with a slugging percentage at .503. He can hit to all parts of the field and may get plenty of strong looks to crack a home run against rookie Cristian Mena, who may not be able to go long into this game. 

With a shaky D-Backs bullpen behind the rookie, Freeman may feast on several right handed relievers, he is hitting .332 and slugging .574 against righties. 

Freeman’s number has drifted further down the board, nearing +500. I’m willing to bite in a game that may be higher scoring than expected in the desert. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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