Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O'Hearn, and Jurickson Profar)

Three plus-money picks to today's MLB slate.

Jul 14, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) stands in the on deck circle during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-USA TODAY Sports / James A. Pittman-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve got more daytime baseball to bet on today, but a smaller slate.

I’ve zeroed in on a few good player prop values with plus-money payouts for this afternoon with all odds coming from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Let’s get to it. 

MLB Best Prop Bets Today

Jurickson Profar over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Profar had two hits last night, one of which was a home run. He has excelled vs. left-handed pitching all season, hitting .343 with 11 extra-base hits. Today, Profar faces lefty Patrick Corbin, whose average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 3% of the league and who has an xERA of 6.01, according to Statcast. Among qualified pitchers, only Zach Littell has allowed a higher batting average than Corbin’s .291 this season.

Meanwhile, Profar’s batting average ranks 13th in MLB. Corbin also has allowed 1.22 home runs per nine this year, which ranks 47th and undoubtedly contributes to his xERA. Let’s grab this value today. 

Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Henderson is hitting .285 with 52 extra-base hits this season (4th in MLB), 28 of which are home runs (T-3rd). Today he faces Marlins righty Robbery Munoz. Not only does Munoz have an xSLG in the bottom 1% of MLB, but he gets hammered by left-handed batters. Lefties are hitting .302 with 10 homers vs. Munoz. Righties hit just .174 with five home runs on him.  

Getting plus money here for Gunnar, a left-handed batter whose xSLG is in the top 6% of the league,  is excellent value.

Ryan O’Hearn over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Copy and paste what I wrote about Munoz above here for Hearn - also a lefty batter for the Orioles.

O’Hearn has been red hot out of the All-Star Break, hitting .357 with a 1.167 OPS, and his xSLG is also in the Top 6% of the league. All 12 of O’Hearn’s homers have come vs. right-handed pitching, and seven have come on the road, where he’s also hitting .301.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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