Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Hunter Greene, Fade Dean Kremer on Thursday)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, Aug. 8.

Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Looking to dabble in some player props for the MLB action on Thursday night?

There are three starting pitchers that I think are worth betting on, including youngster Hunter Greene of the Cincinnati Reds, who has been red hot since the start of June, putting himself in the conversation for the NL Cy Young award. 

There are several ways to bet in the prop market, but with a shorter slate on Thursday, I’m focusing on pitchers only for this edition of Painting Corners. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today for Aug. 8

• Hunter Greene OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)
• Dean Kremer UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135)
• Bryan Woo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Hunter Greene OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Since June 1, Hunter Greene has posted a 2.60 ERA while striking out 78 batters in 65.2 innings of work and opponents are hitting just .150 against him. 

Greene has cleared 7.5 strikeouts in four starts over that stretch, which is a reason why he’s at plus money to do so against the Miami Marlins on Thursday. 

The Marlins are one of the worst offenses in baseball, especially after trading away Jazz Chisholm, and they average 8.53 strikeouts per game on the season and 10.33 strikeouts per game over their last three matchups. 

Greene ranks in the 85th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 83rd percentile in whiff percentage this season, so I wouldn't be shocked if he shuts down the Marlins on Thursday night. 

Dean Kremer UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135)

Baltimore Orioles righty Dean Kremer has struggled in 2024, posting a 4.39 ERA and 4.81 FIP in 15 outings. 

He’s taking on the division rival Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday for the first time in the 2024 campaign. I’m fading Kremer in his outs recorded prop since he’s only gotten through six innings once since the start of July and four times in 15 tries this season.

In fact, Kremer has recorded more starts with fewer than five innings pitched than six innings pitched since the start of May. 

The righty simply hasn’t been good enough for the O’s to force him deep into games, so I’ll fade him against a Jays team that is very familiar with him from previous seasons. 

Bryan Woo UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Seattle Mariners righty Bryan Woo has been great in 2024, posting a 2.08 ERA across 12 starts, but he hasn’t exactly been a strikeout machine.

So, I’m fading him on Thursday night against the Detroit Tigers. 

Woo has punched out just 43 batters in 60.2 innings of work, clearing 5.5 strikeouts in just three of his 12 outings. While Detroit averages 8.62 strikeouts per game, I also can’t put too much stock into Woo being the one who records the majority of the K’s for the Mariners.

Since the start of June, Woo has pitched past the fourth inning in just three of his seven starts, leaving little room for error in this prop if he leaves early. 

He did have six K’s in his last outing, but it was the only time this season he’s thrown more than 90 pitches in a start, and he’s only thrown 80 or more pitches in two of 10 outings. 

The floor is too low for Woo in this prop to take the OVER.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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