Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade Corbin Burnes, Two Rookies to Bet on Saturday)

Breaking down the best players to target in the prop market for the MLB action on Saturday, Aug. 10.

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes. / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Looking to bet on some MLB props on Saturday?

With 16 games in action, there are plenty of starting pitchers – and hitters – to wager on, and I’m targeting a pair of aces to highlight today’s picks.

Plus, there is a rookie – and All-Star – outfielder that could be in a great spot to go deep on Saturday afternoon. 

Here's a look at the best props for Aug. 10. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today for Saturday, Aug. 10

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
• Paul Skenes OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
• Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+650)

Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 2.63 ERA, but he hasn’t been a strikeout machine. 

Burnes has cleared 6.5 strikeouts in just four of his 23 starts, yet he’s set at plus money to go under this total on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Earlier this season, Burnes picked up six K’s in seven innings in a win over the Rays, failing to clear this prop despite recording 21 outs. Tampa Bay does average 9.09 K’s per game this season, but that number dips to 8.67 at home. 

I can’t trust Burnes to get seven punchouts when he’s failed to do so 19 times in 2024. 

Paul Skenes OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)

If Paul Skenes is pitching, I’m betting.

After back-to-back starts with six or fewer strikeouts, Skenes’ K’s prop has dropped all the way to 6.5 for this matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team he already diced up earlier this season. 

Skenes has yet to allow more than three runs in a start all season, and he’s pitched six or more innings in 11 of his 14 outings, a great floor for the OVER on his strikeout prop. 

After punching out eight Dodgers earlier this season, I think Skenes gets back on track in the K department tonight. The Dodgers average 8.46 strikeouts per game this season, so there is a little wiggle room for Skenes with this prop sitting lower than we’ve seen it since the first few starts of his career. 

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+650)

San Diego Padres rookie Jackson Merrill has been terrific in 2024, hitting 16 homers and posting a .294/.326/.482 slash line. 

He’s already homered three times in the month of August, and he’s in a prime spot to do it again on Saturday against Miami Marlins starter Roddery Munoz. 

The Marlins righty has given up 21 homers in just 14 appearances this season, including six different outings where he allowed multiple home runs. 

Merrill has crushed right-handed pitching in 2024, posting a .324 batting average with 11 of his 16 homers. His slugging percentage also jumps up to .527 against righties. After homering on Friday, Merrill could make it back-to-back games this afternoon.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.