Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Kyle Freeland Undervalued; Pete Alonso Bet to Make)

Breaking down the best prop bets to target for the MLB action on Wednesday, July 10.

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland. / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday’s MLB action features 17 games thanks to a pair of doubleheaders, which leaves us with a ton of different pitchers – and hitters – to target in the prop market. 

I’ve settled on two starters in Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes and Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland to highlight today’s MLB props, but I also have a hitter to target to hit a long ball tonight as well. 

Let’s break down the plays for Wednesday, July 10!

Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 10

• Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
• Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+330)
• Kyle Freeland UNDER 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

I don’t want to call this a complete fade of Burnes, as his body of work for the Orioles this season has been extremely impressive. He has a 2.32 ERA and has led the AL East-leading O’s to a 12-6 record in his 18 starts. 

However, he’s failed to clear 6.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 18 starts, only doing so against the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies. In fact, Burnes has recorded six or fewer punchouts in seven of his last eight starts – dating back to late May. 

The Chicago Cubs haven’t been great at avoiding the punch out this season (8.97 per game), but even when Burnes has pitched deep into games, he hasn’t been a lock to clear this prop. In his last five starts where he pitched at least seven innings, he’s failed to hit the OVER every time.

I’m playing the percentages here and taking the UNDER since it’s hit  83.3 percent of the time in 2024. 

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+330)

New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso has hit 18 home runs in the 2024 season, and he’s in a prime spot to go yard against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday.

Why?

Well, Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals, and Alonso has crushed him in his MLB career. In 46 at bats against Corbin, Alonso is hitting .326 with a .717 slugging percentage, five home runs and three doubles. 

Corbin has allowed 14 homers in 18 outings this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alonso smash his sixth bomb against the lefty tonight. 

Kyle Freeland UNDER 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165)

Could Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland be undervalued on Wednesday?

Freeland got off to an awful start, posting a 13.21 ERA in April before going on the injured list and returning in late June. 

Over his last three starts? Freeland has been lights out, posting a 1.37 ERA, allowing just three earned runs across 19.2 innings of work. 

Yet, oddsmakers still have him at 3.5 earned runs for his prop against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. 

Freeland is 3-for-3 at hitting that prop since he returned to the rotation, and I’ll back him again tonight on Wednesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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