Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes on Labor Day)

Breaking down three prop bets to consider in MLB for the action on Labor Day.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. / Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Is there a better way to get involved betting on baseball on Monday than taking some props?

Personally, I love taking pitching props when some of the best starters in the league are on the mound, but I’m actually fading a pair of aces on Labor Day with oddsmakers setting two numbers unusually high for how they’ve fared this season. 

Plus, there is a plus-money hitter prop that is worth a look in the Boston Red Sox-New York Mets clash tonight.

Let’s break down all of these picks to close out the holiday weekend. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today for Monday, Sept. 2

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
• Gerrit Cole UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-180)
• Rafael Devers UNDER 0.5 Hits (+155)

Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, but he hasn’t been a dominant strikeout pitcher. 

The All-Star ranks in just the 47th percentile in strikeout percentage in 2024, and he’s failed to clear 6.5 strikeouts in 22 of his 27 starts, including his lone outing against the Chicago White Sox.

He takes on Chicago again on Monday (averaging 8.7 K’s per game this season), but I’m fading the O’s ace when it comes to this prop. 

Burnes has only picked up more than 7 K’s on two occasions all season, and he’s seen his innings pitched dip as of late, failing to pitch six or more innings in all but one start in August. 

That limits his ceiling in this prop, especially since he’s hit the UNDER on this number over 81 percent of the time in 2024. 

Gerrit Cole UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-180)

New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has an intriguing matchup against the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers, and there is a prop bet that I absolutely love for him. 

Cole has failed to pitch more than six innings in a single start this season, yet his outs recorded prop is set at 18.5 on Monday. 

It’s possible Cole has his longest outing of the season, but the Yankees ace didn’t throw 100 pitches in any of his five starts in August after missing the start of the season with an elbow injury. 

Cole lowered his ERA from 5.40 to 3.86 in August, but I’m still not sold on him working deep into this one. There have been just four times in 12 starts that Cole has completed six full innings in 2024. 

The UNDER is 12-0 at this number in 2024, so I’ll rock with the trend again on Monday. 

Rafael Devers UNDER 0.5 Hits (+155)

This is by far the riskiest play I’m making today, as Boston Red Sox star Rafael Devers is one of the better hitters in the AL, but I’m taking him to go hitless tonight.

The reason?

Devers has really struggled against New York Mets starter Luis Severino in his career, going 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. 

Sevy draws the start for the Mets on Monday, and I expect him to keep Devers in check before handing things to the bullpen. That’s where things could get dicey – New York has a 4.00 bullpen ERA this season – but Devers may only get one or two at bats against it. 

Plus, Devers hasn’t had a multi-hit game since Aug. 18, so we’re not asking him to go cold during a hot streak. I’ll take a shot on this prop in a matchup he doesn’t fare well in. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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